Half a year after Donald Trump He will announce the world that he was going to launch a Commercial War (With other words), everything seems to indicate that we are facing the final bars, at least of the first great battle. The United States has closed tariff agreements with half the world: the European Union (with 15%rates), Japan (15%), United Kingdom (10%) … to the countries that resist negotiating have directly imposed the rate, such as Brazil (50%) o to India (25%). And with the giant of China Chained a negotiating extension after another without having to break the bridges, at least for now. Have you arrived, therefore, commercial peace?
“Trump is unpredictable. This phase of the commercial battle may end but later throws another,” says the economic analyst for this newspaper Fernando Urbaneja. “You can also suddenly fire Peter Navarro [su principal asesor en materia comercial e ideólogo de la guerra arancelaria] Because he does not get the collection to which he aspires, and replaces him with trusted people who defend the free market. ”
Archive photography dated April 2, 2025 of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, showing a table with tariffs applicable to United States commercial partners, during a press conference in the garden of the Roses of the White House in Washington (United States). An American federal court blocked a good part of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy on the imports of numerous countries by considering that he is exceeding his powers. EFE / Kent Nishimura / Pool. ARCHIVE / KENT NISHIMURA / POOL / EFE
If the US president has demonstrated in these six months of global anxiety, he is capable of flying without disheveled. On April 2, he celebrated a pompous ceremony at the Rosaleda of the White House that he called “Liberation Day”. Exhibited one Table with new tariff percentages That he was going to impose on each country, the so -called “reciprocal tariffs”, calculated based on the US trade deficit with each of the others.
The party lasted little. A week later, the economy rushed into the abyss. The bags collapsed and, above all, there was a frightening of the investors of the treasure bonds. The public debt of the first power was no longer a safe value, and had to offer high profitability for the market to buy it. Capital fled the sanctuary of capitalism. Trump aild, rectified and postponed tariffs. Country would be negotiated by country to get good agreements. “They are kissing my ass,” said the Republican, about the calls of world leaders urging him to dialogue. But damage to the credibility of the country was already made.
The dollar, badly injured
The most striking effect is the collapse of the dollar. The “dollar index”, which measures this currency in front of a basket of the world’s main currencies, has suffered in the first six months of the year its worst fall since 1973: a collapse of more than 10%. When the tycoon arrived at the White House, on January 20, there was almost parity in the Euro-Dollar change. Now, with a Green ticket can only be purchased 0.85 euros.
There are those who say that it is part of a masterful play to weaken the currency artificially and that it is cheaper to buy American products. But the collapse seems rather a reaction of lack of market confidence, especially after the presentation of the so -called fiscal “great beautiful law”, which will drastically increase the deficit and indebtedness of the country. A debt that must be paid precisely in an increasingly weak dollar.
“Trump has tested the limits of the hegemony of the dollar, that is already brutal. There is no way to do it well, there is no historical precedent, it has always been a failure. If you weaken a currency, Incentives exports to fix the commercial balance, but the financial cost is triggered,” he values Javier Santacruzeconomist and financial analyst.
China has worked well because it exercises the call “Financial repression” About its capital. The arbitrary exit of the country’s money is prevented. So the artificial devaluation of Yuan lowers its exports, but capital does not flee. Of the United States, yes.
“The distrust of the United States puts an end to the unipolar world and the hegemony of the dollar. A few years ago, it was more than 70% of the transactions that were made in dollars. Now they have dropped to just over half and will continue to fall in favor of the euro and the yuan,” says Fernando Urbaneja. The dollar falls in front of the euro not because the fundamentals of the European economy are radically better, but because US credibility is questioned.
“Perhaps this stage of the commercial war with the EU is over. But Trump is unpredictable and can launch another new one”
Problems for Europe
“Trump has created problems: an intangible one, which is the enormous deterioration of confidence between the two economic blocks and the lack of real alternatives to commercial relations and transatlantic services,” says Santarcuz. “The second, which can be measured, is the loss of potential growth in both in the United States and in Europe, as they are already showing the first estimates. ”
Because problems for the United States are problems for Europe. Europe has a strong domestic market, but what explained so far the European growth sustained over the last years was the foreign sector. It was produced, perhaps not cheaper, but better and with “captive” markets, for example in the chemical and pharmaceutical sector, in which Europe remains a great power, or in the car, especially in components.
The other great Trumpian disturbance of the global economic fabric is in the services sector. Economic nationalism is spread, and China or Europe prefer to hire their companies instead of the United States, either for financial, tourist services, public engineering or consulting tenders. And that is a problem towards the future. In Europe, the foreign sector is, roughly, 75% products and the rest are services, but that relationship should be balanced, because the world is directed towards a service economy.
“There is no way to do it well, it has never happened in history”
Recover the lost
In the next few days, there will be more commercial agreements. In them, Trump will exhibit that he has started the magnificent concessions countries. He already did this week with Japan. The Japanese country would have committed to investing half a billion euros in the United States. China, to sell rare earth at a good price to Washington.
“The paper endures everything, it is the most resistant material, but it remains to be seen that these commitments are fulfilled, a little as 5% of GDP in defense and security spending committed to NATO,” says Fernando Urbaneja. “The truth is that the United States can close in itself, because 70% of its economy is internal consumption. The question is what will be the impact on the rest of the world. The future may be of efficient but not global economic areas, but regional.”
Therefore, European leaders have fallets this week and have gone to the Far East. They have celebrated two peaks with Japan and China, the two regional powers. With the first country they have signed cooperation agreements and improvement of competitiveness. With the second, there has been rather reproaches. The great American partner is not easily substitutable.
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