The latest survey of the show shows a slight recovery of the president’s position () in the dispute for reelection next year.
He isolated all the scenarios in which he disputes in the first round and, in the second, took place at the limit of the margin of error of the ineligible () and the governor (Republicans-SP).
The change is discreet, but occurs at the same time in the clash of Lula with Donald Trump, which did not increase improvement in government assessment, according to the same survey. But it may suggest and allies with the American, which raised to 50% import rates to Brazil.
Trump did so that Bolsonaro, who is being tried accused of trying a blow to stay on Planalto after the defeat in 2022 for Lula, made the opposition to dissect in the former president and surround the label of homeland traitors, leaving governors like Tarcisio in skirt.
Datafolha tested seven first -turn scenarios. Bolsonaro still has his name evaluated because, even ineligible, he can apply his candidacy – when he was arrested in 2018, just to be barred closer to the election.
In all, Lula has. It expanded the advantage over Bolsonaro compared to last month’s survey at five points, beating the rival by 39% to 33%. The margin of error is two points for more or less.
Defeat both children of the former president by similar margin: Deputy Eduardo (PL-SP) for 39% to 20% and Senator Flávio (PL-RJ), by 40% to 18%. Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle (PL-DF), loses 39% to 24%.
In the dispute with Tarcisio, there is stability before the previous round. Lula marks 38% to 21%. The governor is the main name of the opposition in the two scenarios without the petista, and has similar performance: draw at 23% to 23% with the minister (PT) and is in technical equality with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin (PSB-SP), who leads by 24% to 22%.
In the opposition hosts, the name that best comes beyond Tarcisio, from Paraná. It is in third place consistently, oscillating from 10% to 14% in the most plausible scenarios.
Datafolha doubled the second round scenarios. The technical draw in the simulation of Lula’s previous research against Bolsonaro or Tarcisio was now replaced by a detachment of the petista.
The former president had 45% compared to 44% of the petista, who now leads to the maximum margin limit, by 47% to 43%. Governor oscillated from 42% to 41%, while Lula went from 43% to 45%. The advantage follows about Michelle (48% to 40%), Eduardo (49% to 37%) and Flavio (48% to 37%).
In the new simulations, who is Ratinho Jr., with performance similar to that of the Paulista Governor, losing 45% to 40% to Lula. The name factor weighs and can influence the result, given the popularity of Paraná’s father, the homonymous TV presenter.
In any case, in a scenario where the right field is open and Tarcisio is pressured by some allies to seek reelection, it is a given to notice – and Mouse Jr. is from the PSD of Mandachuva, an important name of the São Paulo government.
In addition, Lula marks 47% to 35% against Ronaldo Caiado, Governor of Goiás by União Brasil, and for 46% to 36% when facing Romeu Zema, for the new.
Without the current president, Tarcisio defeat Haddad by 43% to 37% in the second round and, in another scenario, ties technically with Alckmin, but having numerical advantage (40% to 38%).
The spraying of the moment is also measured when observing the table of names cited spontaneously by voters. In it is drawn the imagination of polarization: Lula has 22%, Bolsonaro, 17%, and Tarcisio, 1%.
Already the rejection, an important factor in puts Lula (47%) and Bolsonaro (44%) with almost prohibitive levels of electorate pouting today. The former president’s family is also well rejected, in the 36%-38%.
Any opposition candidates without the surname Bolsonaro benefit from the low exposure outside its state borders: Tarcisio has only 17% rejection, compared to 21% of Ratinho Jr. and 22% Zema.
In the ruling field, Haddad, who lost the national dispute to Bolsonaro in 2018, has 32%, while Alckmin, with a long career in and two federal defeats (2006 and 2018), records 27%.
Datafolha went to the streets on July 29 and 30, having interviewed 2,004 voters in 130 municipalities.
