Of the many scenarios placed for the 2026 presidential election, it is not worth wasting much time with those that include (PL) and those who exclude (). The former president is likely to be arrested in the election, and the current one should not only compete for an imponderable physique.
The various remaining hypotheses show the petista with a advantage of 15 points or more about the nearest candidate on the first round, the former first lady (PL).
Comfortable advantage, but it can lead to the illusion that the worst in the current president’s political situation has passed and now is to manage the victory. The reality is that the election has everything to be very similar to that of 2022: very tight and decided in the detail in the second round.
The right is fragmented and should remain, since the only candidate who would have the power to unite it would be Jair himself. None of your children or spouse will be able to do the legion of governors interested in the job to take the field team.
In this range it is up to everything: since the center-right pragmatic of. (PSD) to the technocratic pockets of (Republicans), through conservatism to Milei de (new) and the right root of (União Brasil).
Even between “The Bolsonaros” there are nuances, with Flavio representing something close to the center, Michelle engaging the evangelical base and Eduardo, perhaps what has the personality more like her father, from the US planting bombs.
It is likely that this destroyed menu still deacter a little, with some of the names becoming vices of others.
The certainty is that everyone will be united in the second round against Lula, unless the scythe dispute to be there has left irrecoverable scars. But this is difficult. If there is a mortar that unites the right is the ojeriza to the petista leader.
In the second round scenarios with Lula (and without Jair Bolsonaro), there are two who deserve attention. Against Tarcísio the advantage of the president is four percentage points, which indicates technical draw. Against Mouse, it’s five.
Paranaense, by the way, is one of the great benefits of research, with their light antipetism, well rated management and, of course, the help of the father’s name. Affiliated to a party that can be a bit of everything in the ideological spectrum and is piloted by the guru, may be appealed to the most independent third of the electorate, which is the great object of desire for election.
The question for him is being able to reach the final stage.
About Michelle the advantage of Lula reaches eight points, making her Bolsonaro-not-jair better positioned.
This data only confirms the evaluation within the pockets that it is the family’s political future, but it is hard to imagine that a neophyte at the polls like the former first lady venture into a presidential dispute when the Senate vacancy in the Federal District is practically guaranteed. One data that may change the calculation is the possible martyrizer effect that the arrest of the husband will have on his image.
Flávio and Eduardo, on the other hand, both with disadvantage to Lula in the two -digit house, seem to expand his appeal beyond the traditional base of his father.
Returning to the governors, Zema and Caiado are the ones who face the most difficulty to get out of the right bubble, and petistas do not hide the fans for their candidacy.
In the case of Goiano, who is 75, there would be a bonus to Lula, 79: the neutralization of the age debate, which the petista will certainly face in the electoral race, whatever the opponents.
A lateral but revealing aspect of research is the difficulty that the current government faces without Lula in the ballot box.
Neither the vice president, (PSB), nor the Minister of Finance, (PT), get performance comparable to those of the president, either in the first or second round.
But, as stated earlier, they are scenarios that should not be explored much now, but which will be on the agenda when the “post-lula” arrive in 2030. Hence, yes, the left will have a problem.
