The brick does not loosen, despite the prices triggered and the shortage of supply. and has reached record figures: in the first half of this year 357,533 housing sale, the highest volume in almost two decades, according to the data, according to the data published on Tuesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). You have to go back to 2007, in the prelude to the bubble, to find similar numbers. Then the 430,000 operations were exceeded, in a very different context, but whose echoes are still heard.
The sale signed in the first half of the year are a sustained increase with respect to last year’s data, almost 20% more. They also exceed more than 8% when the market expanded strongly and the operations reached levels close to those of the bubble of the early century due to the pull of demand that had been reservoir during the pandemic confinements. In June alone, the rise was 17.8% compared to the same month of 2024, with more than 59,000 transmissions.
The operations of the first half of this year even exceed the figures of the second half of 2007, when the market began to cool the heating of the beginning of the century. This confirms the first half of 2025 as the second best semiannual fact of the INE historical series, which just begins in 2007. “Only in the first half of 2025 more homes were sold than throughout the year 2015,” says Beñat of the Coso, spokesman for the idealistic real estate platform. All in an environment in which the offer remains scarce, ”adds the expert in a note sent to the media.
In fact, housing availability is one of the elements that differentiate the exuberance that the market is now experiencing with respect to the bubble years. Compared to then, now the new work is scarce, although it has rebounded in recent times. If the construction was thrown from the sector and the economy in general, now the main protagonist is the second -hand housing: of the total operations, 20% corresponds to, while the vast majority are sale of used properties.
Only in the month of June 46,421 second -hand homes were sold, according to the data of the PROPERTY RIGHT TRANSMISSION STATISTICS of the INE. In the first half of the year, the figure exceeded 278,000 units, about 78% of the total operations of the semester and above 255,795 of 2007, when the new construction absorbed more than 40% of the market. And that brand new housing transactions have been rebounding for several months – they did 30% between January and June – although at an still insufficient rate to suppose a market turn. Nor does the protected house take off: although the operations have risen 13.4% until June, they are limited to just over 24,000 floors and follow 35% below the levels of the bubble times.
“The guideline remains the same, we are not facing a trend change much less. While the volume of new homes is very small, the market spins on itself and it is always the same rent segments that you can buy,” analyzes Ignacio Ezquiaga, economist and author of the book The system no longer finances bubbles (Funcas, 2024). “And there is another aspect that always goes unnoticed: transactions on urban floors remain very small and need to be reactivated to build. The new housing is the one that will determine the market price,” Zanja.
The other great real estate portal of Spain, Fotocasa, just alert about the renewed interest in the new work despite its scarcity. “It can bring a serious pricing problem if the demand continues so strong. The difficulties of the promoters to find land and finance it, in addition to the increase in the cost of the materials or the excessive bureaucracy and the great lack of labor that the sector faces, maintain the insufficient productive levels to be able to absorb the existing purchase demand,” says María Matos, director of studies of the company. However, Matos believes that there is “optimism and confidence of the buyer in the market, driven by the decline of interest rates.”
Upward prices
The shortage of supply is one of the elements that, in a context of high prices and interest rates – despite the fact that inflation has been moderated and, therefore, they have started – and an equally inaccessible rental market. The average value of new and used housing in Spain has grown 1.5% in July with respect to the previous month, and places the progress in the last year, according to the data published Tuesday by the real estate appraiser Tinsa. The firm indicates that the increase “has been remarkable” in the capitals and large cities, with a monthly increase of 2%; The islands, the capitals and the Mediterranean coast concentrate the greatest increases in the last year, above 10%.
The general price index that the appraiser has increased has increased 57.6% from the minimum of the financial crisis, although it follows 7.3% below the maximums of the late 2007. “In July, residential prices have continued to grow above inflation in all areas, with special intensity in the capitals and large cities, where the concentration of the population in combination with the scarcity of housing Tensioning, ”explains Cristina Arias, director of the Tinsa Studies Service.
INE data suggests that market heating is widespread. In fact, the greatest percentage rebounds in the sale in the accumulated of the first semester have registered in communities where the sector is traditionally (at least in the last decade) less dynamic: Castilla y León (31.4%), La Rioja (30.3%) and Castilla-La Mancha (26.7%).
José García Montalvo, professor at the Economics at the Pompeu Fabra University, considers that the decrease in interest rates has played a crucial role in the rebound in the sale of the last year, although there are other important factors. “Employment is still created and GDP grows faster than in other countries. Macroeconomy marks a lot, and if demography is added, with a population that is growing, there are more factors that push the price and sale of homes.”
In addition, Montalvo believes that there is a generalized sensation among many buyers that if they do not acquire a house they can never do so, since the price increase seems to have no end. Even so, he thinks there could be a change in trend. “The price increase has already eaten the descent of interest rates,” explains the economist, and adds that the data on transactions provided by notaries begin to show cooling signals. “They usually anticipate trends,” he warns.
