O and the presence of yellow shirts on the streets of various cities last Sunday (3), more than imagined, serve as an appetizer for a second semester that is announced of the most troubled.
It seems, after all, that in less than two months the former president (PL) will be sentenced by the Federal Supreme Court for participation in the alleged coup plot. The wrath of its allies, expressed in recent days in the plenary of legislative houses and the demonstrations across the country, tends only to grow.
A certain effect is anticipation in a semester of the electoral calendar, with immediate reflexes in the legislative production of deputies and senators.
As a rule, the third year of a legislature – in case we live – is the last possibility of discussing relevant projects before the effective start of the election campaign. In 2026, except for some emergency matter or an unlikely theme that unless government and opposition, nothing very important will leave the National Congress.
And the voting window in this second half of 2025, which already looked close, begins to close even more.
It is not credible to last more than a few days (if so much), but the obstruction in the legislature can be done in various ways, authorized by the bylaws. The political climate matters more than the physical invasion of the directors.
The Lula administration, in this case, is the one who suffers more, because it has an ambitious agenda that may now be at risk for the climate conflagrated in the legislature.
The biggest bet is the exemption of income tax for those who earn up to $ 5,000 monthly, but there are also measures such as a new and expanded gype allowances, as well as actions to benefit delivery by applications and the end of the 6×1 work scale. If they were controversial themes before, they will be even harder to approve now.
Minister Alexandre de Moraes’s heavy hand, first with an anklet imposition in Bolsonaro, and now with his house arrest, can return as a boomerang against the Lula administration after reaching his targets on the right-up to the former president.
The end of this year, thus consolidated as a full period of election campaign, as if we were already in April 2026.
A side effect will be to force the main fields to finally define their course.
If, on the left, Lula has already crystallized his reconditeration (except for a health problem), the right has an opportunity to give the voter a little more clarity about his project.
Isolated in your home, with weakened health and a possible depressive picture, Bolsonaro will hardly support the fiction of his presidential candidacy.
Paradoxically, it is this diminished figure who can untie the knot in its ideological field. Firstly, you will need to decide once and for all indicates Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans) as your representative in the ballot box or if this role will be someone who carries his surname.
This definition depends on the degree of fragmentation of anti-lula forces in the list of presidential candidacies, with the inclusion or not of names such as governors Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR), Ronaldo Caiado (União-GO) and Romeu Zema (Novo-MG), and of course Tarcisio himself.
From now on until mid-September, it is estimated that Bolsonaro’s trial will take place, new street demonstrations should be promoted, which may give rise to new Moraes measures against the former president’s supporters, in a vicious cycle of no date to finish.
Do you may give in to the pressure of some of its peers, the scenario that is set is a whole year of high voltage election campaign. It will certainly be one of the longest in our history.
