The house arrest of Jair Bolsonaro and the entry into force of export tariffs imposed by Donald Trump constitute part of a cocktail that shakes Brazil In faced addresses. The President LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA He has preferred to maintain prudential distance from recent made with the certainty that difficult hours are coming for his government. Both facts seem to be inseparable at this time. Gravamen affects 36% of sales to the United States and includes products such as agricultural machinery, meat and coffee.
One issue leads to the other. The judge of the Federal Court (STF), Alexander de Morashe locked the former president at his home and caused the immediate reaction of Washington and the ultra -right. Congress was the first battlefield last Tuesday. Bolsonarism and its allies made their first attempt to generate the conditions for an de Moraes trial and advance in an amnesty project of the participants of the coup attempt of January 8, 2023. They did not have luck and it is possible that they do not have it because, they point out different analysts, the political center would not be lent to that maneuver. Beyond the speculation a certainty has emerged: the legislature is from the latest judicial news a permanent focus of tension. The ruling party has no majorities and constantly forced pirouettes and negotiations to avoid frustrations. Now new dangers have appeared.
De Moraes made his decision for considering that Bolsonaro laughed on the face of justice At times that the process against him progresses for the active participation in the spell against Lula that included the hypothesis of his murder. The electronic anklet did not reduce its prominence and the STF judge made a measure that does not seem to cause unanimities in favor.
Dissimilar interpretations
The versions of what happens within the highest court are found in the press media. According to Mônica Bergamo, columnist of ´folha` of San Pablo, The arrest of the former army former. Some magistrates considered that the step taken was “Exaggerated, unnecessary and unsustainableand from the legal point of view. “The main judicial instance has been” weakened “at a time when it is subject to” fierce attacks “by the Trump administration.” Although de Moraes continues to have a strong support from its colleagues and with the recognition for the role that it has played so far and for the personal price he has paid for containing attacks on democracy, the impression is that the impression is that the impression is wrong. of your colleagues is that “reconside” what has done.
On the contrary, Thiago Bronzatto, columnist of the Carioca newspaper ´O Globo` said that De Moraes has “achieved, for the moment, a greater support” of the other members of the STF “for having put your head at stake, especially before the Trump government” and “when confronting the Bolsononists.” The situations that expose the supreme to greater pressure, as has happened on Tuesday with the opposition protest in Congress, “usually accentuate among the ministers the feeling that it is necessary to defend the court and its members.” Between racks, “some magistrates have said that, if a limit is not drawn to the performance of the former president and his children, the country’s political landscape could deteriorate, further polarizing the electoral contest of 2026”.
For the Paulista newspaper ´Estado`, the arrest of Bolsonaro is seen by jurists as a “legal trap” that seeks to feed the thesis of the persecution. Hélio Schwartsman, another firm of ´folha` questions the effectiveness of that maneuver and does not rule out that it may have been “another error of calculation of the clan”. While the “victimization” of the former president can encourage Trump to expand the sanctions against Brazil, that vision “is myopic.” The United States pressure “could even make Brazil open their economy to American products, but, Unless Trump sends troops here, invade Brazil and Ocupe Brasilia, it is almost nil the possibility that the STF does not condemn Bolsonaro to a long prison penalty “for the facts the 8e.
The “Day D”
The unprecedented rise of tariffs has been interpreted in Brazil as a political sanction not only by the judicial situation that is going through an ally of the Republican billionaire but also because of the role that Lula tries to play in the BRICS, a block led by China and Russia that Washington considers hostile to his interests.
On the eve of “Day D”, two movements that did not go unnoticed took place. On the one hand, the powerful agricultural sector resolved that its parliamentary representation sympathizes with Bolsonaro. On the other hand, Paulo Skaf has just been elected to command after several years the powerful Federation of Industries of the State of San Paulo (Fiesp). His first gesture is to show himself as an opponent of Lula and, above all, hold the government responsible for the imposition of the new tariffs. They have reproached him to overlook the fact that Eduardo Bolsonaro, the son of the ex -president, who articulated from Washington the actions adopted by Trump has been.
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