The president of the United States, does not stop giving hammer. Who usually proclaim that it is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” has demonstrated in half a year of mandate that has taken brightness to this word and wants to continue doing it in the time that she stays in the White House. This Thursday they enter into force, a week after publication. Its implementation does not clear uncertainties. And it makes it clear that threats to countries continue.
This Wednesday, Trump, which will reach 50%, for their oil purchases from Russia. And the day before he had launched a new threat to the European Union. In a telephone interview with the CNBC television network, the Republican warned Brussels that his taxes could be shot at 35% if the investments of 600,000 million dollars (about 520 billion euros) that the European club had promised in its agreement almost two weeks ago.
Trump also announced that he will impose a 100% tariff to imports of semiconductors and chips, but with an important exemption: it will not apply to the companies that manufacture in the US or undertake to do so. “If, for some reason, you say that you are building and you do not, then we review the calculation, add it, accumulate and charge you later; you have to pay, and that is a guarantee,” he said.
The measure is in line with the objective of the Republican to bring manufacturing back to his country. This announcement coincides, in fact, with the news that Apple would invest 100,000 million dollars (more than 85,650 million euros) additional in its local market.
Although these Trump statements do not constitute a formal ad, the main affected countries have reacted to the news. On the one hand, the main commercial envoy of South Korea has celebrated that chips manufacturers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix will not be subject to the rate. His country, he said, will have the most favorable tariffs for semiconductors by virtue of a commercial agreement between Washington and Seoul. At the other extreme of the spectrum, the president of the Philippine Semiconductor Industry, Dan Lachica, has affirmed that Trump’s plan would be “devastating” for his country.
. The bewilderment is patent. Even about the entry into force of tariffs. In Brussels it was understood that this moment came on Friday, in front of Washington’s idea on Thursday.
The application of the new regime will impose tariffs of 15% to most of the American allies – including the EU -, a minimum soil of 10% and. At least, for now. But the photo is not complete, and it is possible, given the volatile of Trump’s temperament, which never will be at all; That modifications are introduced in the treatment of one country or another, depending on the sympathies or phobias of the president at a given time.
Sanctions to Russia
The first modifications to the general tariff regime are, in fact, imminent. Trump, who has found in the commercial policy its favorite pressure tool for partners and rivals, has already let it know that it could impose sanctions and taxes on Russia, and secondary tariffs for other Moscow oil buyers, for this Thursday or Friday. For next week he has announced new rates for semiconductors, which would load with 100%, and pharmaceutical products. The latter could now be taxed with a more or less moderate tax and within a couple of years with a shocking 250%, according to the US president in an interview at the beginning of this week.
In Washington, the Swiss president, Karin Keller-Sutter, has met Wednesday with Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, in a negotiation against the clock to achieve a reduction of tariffs to her country, now 39%.
Next week another deadline will be fulfilled: the one that Washington and Beijing have set to resolve their respective tariff treatments and that it expires in principle on Tuesday 12, although both capitals have hinted that there could be extension. More margin has Mexico, which negotiated a 90 -day extension to reach an agreement.
Despite the huge questions still to be resolved – the main one: what real impact will end up having on the world economy, and in the American this banding towards protectionism after decades of globalization – Trump is exultant about its policy, which considers absolute success. “We have a lot of money, much more than this country has ever seen,” proclaims right and left.
The figures, for the moment, partly give him reason. In July, the United States Treasury has raised around 30,000 million dollars in import taxes, 242% more than in the same month last year. Since April, that figure has exceeded 100,000 million dollars.
With that money, Trump aspires to finance the broad fiscal cuts that he has launched in the United States and reduce the galloping sovereign debt, 36 billion dollars (more than 120% of its gross domestic product). He has even flirting with the idea of distributing checks among the country’s citizens at some time in the future. “The purpose of what I am doing is, mainly, paying debt, and that is something that will happen in large quantities. But I think we are also collecting so much that we can pay a dividend to the American people,” he presumed on Tuesday.
The doubt of inflation
The great unknown is what will happen to inflation, the big problem that ended up costing the presidency to his predecessor, Joe Biden. At the moment it is under control, largely because importing companies have so far absorbed tariff costs. But prices begin to make signs of growing, especially in sensitive sectors such as toy store or electronics.
That has always been European criticism to Trump’s decisions, that tariffs are taxes that citizens end up paying. The logic is that in the end the increase in import input rates are transformed into increases in the last sale price. However, that has not dissuaded Trump or the universe that supports him. In that conglomerate that supports the Republican, it is also believed that the US supports a greater burden than other countries for its contribution to security, very evident in the case of Europe, and for being the dollar the world reference currency, which would harm US exports.
Security is something that was very present at the negotiating table with the European Commission. The East East countries and Germany were very aware that, without the protection of the United States, they would be much weaker against Russia. To that was added the argument that, although the pact achieved was deeply unbalanced, the trade war was thus avoided, which would be worse, and won certainty for companies.
But at least this last part, that of certainty, it is clear that it will not arrive. That was one of the great warnings that analysts launched to the commission and the most impatient member states to reach an agreement, mainly Germany. They were based on the history of erratic decisions that only in recent months has accumulated Trump and that, as seen in the few days that go this week, has been confirmed.
The strategy that the EU wants to cushion to cushion the impact of the tariff and constant focus of uncertainty that is Washington is to expand commercial alliances to diversify markets. The reasoning that is usually heard is that the US is only 13% of world trade and that more attention must be paid to the remaining 87%. And there appear some principles of agreement achieved in recent weeks, such as that achieved with Indonesia or the common objective that Brussels and New Delhi were marked to have a commercial pact before the end of the year, a very ambitious objective in the case of India, a country that has traditionally shown a marked protectionist tone. That plan also goes to ratify the agreements already closed with Mercosur and with Chile. And finally, delve into the single market itself, an old yearning for European technocracy.
