The place matters, said US President Donald Trump. Moments later, he announced that Alaska as a destination where Russian President Vladimir Putin will try to make the territorial agreement of the century. This is because Putin will try to get Ukraine to deliver pieces of land it has not yet been able to occupy.
Alaska was sold by Russia to the United States 158 years ago for $ 7.2 million.
The conditions around the summit next Friday (15) favor both Moscow, which is obvious to understand why Putin took advantage of the chance after months of false negotiations. It is also difficult to see how an agreement will come out of the meeting that does not destroy Ukraine.
Kiev and his European allies reacted with understandable horror of the initial ideas of Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff that Ukraine gave the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in exchange for a ceasefire.
Naturally, Putin promoted the idea of taking territory without struggle and found a receptor willing in the form of Witkoff, who in the past showed a relaxed understanding of Ukrainian sovereignty and the complexity of asking a country in the fourth year of his invasion, which simply abandon cities that lost thousands of men defending.
It is worth stopping and reflecting on what Witkoff’s proposal would look like. Russia is close to surrounding two DonETSK key cities: Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Thus, it can effectively place the Ukrainian troops that defend these two centers under siege in the coming weeks. Giving in these two cities can be something Kiev does anyway to keep labor in the coming months.
The rest of Donetsk – especially the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – is already a much more unpleasant perspective. Thousands of civilians live there now, and Moscow would delight in the scenes of the Russian troops entering the unoccupied cities without shot.
A In giving territory earlier this Saturday (9) reflects the true dilemma of a chief commander trying to manage the anger of his army and the profound distrust of the Ukrainian people about their neighbor, who continues to bombard their cities every night.
What could Ukraine recover in the “exchange” mentioned by Trump? Perhaps the small tracks of Russian -occupied border areas in the regions of Sumy and Kharkiv – part of Putin’s alleged “tampon zone” – but not much more, realistically.
The main objective is a ceasefire, and this is itself a challenge. Putin has long maintained that the immediate ceasefire required by the United States, Europe and Ukraine for months is impossible, as technical work on monitoring and logistics should occur first. It is unlikely that he has changed his mind now that his troops are on the rise throughout the eastern front line.
To give due credit, Putin made clear from the beginning what he wants: all subdued or busy Ukraine and a strategic redefinition with the US that involves abandoning Kiev completely. His advisor, Yury Ushakov, spoke of Alaska as a great place to discuss economic cooperation between Washington and Moscow, and suggested that a return summit in Russia had already been proposed.
There is a risk of seeing a camaraderie between Trump and Putin that allows US president to tolerate more technical meetings among his teams about what and when any ceasefire agreement. A plan on exchanges or dirt sockets totally favorable to Moscow can then be presented to Kiev, with the old US ultimatums about helping and sharing intelligence being conditioned to the acceptance of the agreement we have seen before. With also the French president Emmanuel Macron calling Trump again, and so we returned to the cycle from the beginning.
Putin needs more time to continue conquering and is about to get it.
What has changed since the last time Trump has clashed at the Oval Hall with Zelensky? Two elements are present now that until then they were absent.
First, we cannot ignore that India and China – the first risking 25% rates in two weeks and the last one still hoping that damage will suffer in the last days.
They may have provided some impetus for Putin to meet Trump, or at least offer more rhetorical diplomacy again, and may be concerned with their energy imports being compromised by Trump’s secondary sanctions.
But Putin must not have needed much persuasion to accept a formal invitation to the US to have bilateral gathering, which his team has long considered, as the path to peace in Ukraine. And almost unnoticed amid confusion over Alaska and territorial agreements.
Secondly, Trump states that his view of Putin has evolved. “Disappointed”, “disgusting”, “curling me” are some of the last phrases about the Kremlin leader.
Although Trump seems easily able to prevent genuine pain from Moscow, allowing threats and deadlines to fall without effect around him, Trump is surrounded by allies and republicans who will remember how many times have traveled these ways before.
A lot could work. But the scenario is prepared for something more ominous. Consider Putin’s mindset for a moment. Trump’s third threat of sanctions evaporate, and his strengths are entering a period of strategic gain in the front lines. He got his first invitation to the US in a decade to talk about peace in Ukraine without Ukraine, discussing an agreement where he doesn’t even have to fight to get part of the remaining territory he wants.
And all this even before the former KGB spy start using the apparent magic you have about Trump.
