IBS
Although it is still a very small risk, the likelihood of an asteroid falling to the earth is greater than that a person is hit by a radius.
Many of the most common phobias are based on unlikely scenarios, such as being attacked by a shark or the crash of an airplane. A new published on The Planetary Science Journal has decided to take this concept to put the threat of asteroids in perspective, revealing that, although such events are rare, the risk of a large falling asteroid may be higher than many people imagine.
The investigation, led by Professor Carrie Nugent, by Olin College, compares the likelihood of a asteroid with at least 140 meters Diameter reaches the earth during the life of a human being (about 71 years) to other rare but measurable risks such as lightning, elephant attacks and parachutism accidents. A rock of this size can cause regional devastation, becoming a serious, even uncommon risk.
“Although it is quite unlikely that an asteroid impact on a given year is not zero and may be greater than some people expect,” Nugent told. “On average, it is slightly more likely that an asteroid or a comet with more than 140 meters reaches the earth than an individual is hit by lightning. ”
Using data from US disease control and prevention centers, the team found that the rays kill about 28 people annually in a 320 million American population. Statistically, this risk is lower than that of an impact of an asteroid throughout life.
Elephant attacks on Nepal, with only 18 deaths in 2016, are also less common, as well as parachutism accidents, coyota attacks and even the collapse of dry sand holes, says.
However, the risk of asteroids has a fundamental advantage: it is prevenable if detected early. The recent advances in planetary defense offer hope. NASA DART MISSION 2022 successfully changed the route of an asteroiddemonstrating that humanity could divert a threatening object with sufficient notice.
Although the odds of witnessing a catastrophic impact of an asteroid in a life are small, the study underlines the importance of context in understanding risk. Like carbon monoxide poisoning, the impacts of asteroids can be mitigated – but only if humanity is prepared.
