The tariff imposed by the creates a political environment in favor of, but it is unlikely that the rhetoric of sovereignty becomes a wide front to the 2022 molds.
Center parties, evaluate political scientists, seek their own candidacy, and the current political moment has important differences from past elections, such as the change of US government and the very absence of in power.
Similarly, Lula’s third term has been marked by his negotiation and decision -making difficulty. In this sense, the Planalto would have to show leadership ability to capitalize on the effects of tariff, which will only be felt in the long run.
For Paulo Henrique Cassimiro, professor of political science at UERJ (Rio de Janeiro State University), the tendency is to strengthen the right, including after the elections.
“I think it is foolhardy to predict American interference in Brazil can generate a coalition in favor of Lula. Centrão did not stop negotiating with Bolsonaro by his name,” he says.
“At the same time, it is the chance that Lula has to save his mandate and be reelected. But I criticize his government’s inability to decide and accomplish what he wants.”
With the announcement of the tariff, Planalto launched a new advertising campaign under the motto “Brazil Sovereign”, with video aired on.
The play came in the use of Brazilian flag colors, once a pocket distinctive, and sought to provoke patriotic feeling in the viewer, showing images of forests, plantations and people of different strata and social origins.
“É ‘my friend’ [meu amigo]here the boss is us. Brazil is sovereign, Brazil belongs to Brazilians, “says the narrator, at some point in the video.
“Sovereignty is a difficult concept for the general population. Government material could explain it better,” says Cassimiro.
In parallel, the defense of sovereignty led to some mobilizations of sectors of civil society. Nine former ministers, from various governments, published a letter expressing repudiation of against Brazil’s decisions, including the ban on STF ministers from entering the US.
In the signator list, Miguel Reale and José Carlos Dias (Fernando Henrique Cardoso), Tarso Genro and Eugênio Aragão (Lula), as well as José Eduardo Cardozo (Dilma Rousseff) and Raul Jungmann (Michel Temer).
Days before the tariff came into force, the USP Law School held at its headquarters, in Largo de São Francisco, the act for sovereignty, which brought together entities such as the Brazilian Bar Association (OAB), the MST (Landless Rural Workers Movement) and the UNE (National Student Union).
At the time, another letter was read, which stressed that the sovereignty of the country was non -negotiable. The act was inspired by a similar protest in 2022, with the aim of safeguarding democracy. At the time, Bolsonaro was in power, about to try reelection.
At that time, 3,000 people, including bankers, businessmen, actors and jurists, gave support from the wide front that would form, with Geraldo Alckmin, a name hitherto linked to the right center, as deputy on Lula’s plate.
FGV Political Science Professor Marco Antonio Carvalho Teixeira states that tariff has created distrust about the opposition’s ability to protect national interests.
He sees, however, many differences between the context of 2022 and the current one, starting with Bolsonaro’s absence in the presidency.
“The risk of blow was internal and, to a large extent, we didn’t have a democratic rupture because Joe Biden didn’t play,” says Teixeira, adding that the reissue of a large front is unlikely.
He thinks the government would have to act to maintain the favorable political moment until the election and that if the tariff has devastating effects on the economy, the tendency is to strengthen a right -wing name. Therefore, this is the bet of pockets.
Trump’s measure now imposes 50% surcharge on Brazilian products, with the potential to decrease exports. The American market is the second main destination for sales of companies in Brazil, only losing to China. Among the products that will be struggled are coffee and meat.
Professor of Political Science at UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais) Leonardo Avritzer does not think it is so unlikely an alliance for Lula in 2026, but also sees important differences between that political and the current moment.
He recalls that at the time, Bolsonaro injected resources into Brazil aid, in order to raise popularity, a challenge for his competitor in the presidential elections.
“Lula currently has much wider challenges than beating Bolsonaro,” says Avritzer. “If the agribusiness sectors, today on the right, are very harmed by the tariff, there may be a mobilization by Lula.”
Avritzer also states that the concept of sovereignty is not so subjective and that, in general, the population is sensitized by advertising pieces on the subject. The expert recalls that Trump’s justifications for tariff – a supposed persecution of Bolsonaro, now defendant for the coup plot – are fragile.
“If a country interferes with the institutions of others, I think this is a clear message to the population that this cannot occur,” says Avritzer.
