As the days from the tripartite meeting at the White House between Donald Trump, Nicole Pasinian and Ilham Aligiev pass, the clearer the targeting of the agreement signed, as well as the new balances and dangers that it creates in the sensitive area.
On paper, on August 8, 2025, a preliminary peace deal was signed between and two countries whose conflict, from the collapse of the Soviet Union and then, significantly determined the balances in the region. But in practice it will have serious geopolitical implications if it finally applies what it provides.
US dismantle Minsk’s team
It, among other things, envisages the dismantling of the Minsk team of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which involved France, Russia and the US and operating as a key mediator for the relations between the two sides.
With the new agreement of France and Russia they are essentially losing the opportunity to interfere with developments through this scheme.
Minsk’s team may have been actually inflicted for many years, as both Russia and the US have supported, but it has maintained a … multinational mediation in line with the “standards” of the post -war and post -war international international order.
The breakup of Minsk’s team will automatically mean on the basis of this agreement, that the main regulator in the Caucasus – a part known as the backyard of Russia – will now be the US
The Trump route for peace …
The role of the United States becomes even clearer and with the most important prediction of the peaceful peace agreement (there will be consultations and moves on a definitive agreement that should be validated). The granting of exclusive rights to develop one of the most important trade routes of the area to a consortium of American companies for 99 years.
The corridor that was known as Zangenzur until recently will now be called “Trump route for international peace and prosperity” (Tripp) and when – and completed it will link Azerbaijan to Nachitsevan’s pocket (exquisite) by Nachitsevan through the province of Iraki.
In this way, Washington will control a focal area (about 40 kilometers long) for trade between Asia and Europe, essentially entering the “wedge” between Russia and Iran and securing a commercial road connecting Azerbaijan with Nachichevan, which borders.
… And Turkey
Turkey, which contributed significantly to Azerbaijan’s prevalence in the clash with Armenia for Nagorno Karabakh, which ended in 2023 with the annexation of Karabakh to Azerbaijan, after nearly 30 years of intensity, killings and beasts, supported the beasts.
The Turkish political leadership, after the attachment of Karabakh, took an open initiative in favor of the development of this corridor. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan was pushing in this direction because the development of this corridor according to his narrative “would unite the Turkish -speaking world”.
In practice, the Turkish leadership ensures that Azerbaijan and Turkey (and Armenia with which Ankara has begun a serious attempt at convergence in the last two years) will control – in addition to the US intermediaries – a key part of the commercial route known as “average”.
Russia missed its opportunity
The idea of developing this corridor is of course not only Erdogan and Aligiev. Before Trump undertook … the project (the agreement that was negotiated by the beloved man of the US president for such jobs by Real Estate Steve Witkov), Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey had put his hopes for his development. His development had even found a place in the truce agreement signed in 2020 by Russian mediation by the two opponents in the Caucasus.
Russia, however, avoided making moves in this direction – as statements until last year by Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Maria Zaharova – because of Moscow’s … strategic relationship with Tehran, who would have lost – as it loses – and loses it.
Iran promises cemeteries for American mercenaries
It is indicative that yesterday, just one day with the… fiesta at the White House, Ali Akbar Velaetti, a senior adviser to Iran’s top leader Ayatollah Ali Hameni, told Tansim, that Iran would not allow him to grow. As he characteristically pointed out: “Mr. Trump thinks the Caucasus is a piece of real estate that can rent for 99 years. This passage will not become a gateway to Trump’s mercenaries, they will become their cemetery. ” As Iran pointed out, he will act either with Russia or without it.
From Velaetti’s statements, it becomes clear that Iran will treat the issue as a security issue, an attitude that is in accordance with earlier Iranian leadership positions on Zanguezur, whose development has always been a change of border that benefits Turkey.
The reference to mercenaries and cemeteries is by no means accidental. Prior to the official signing of the Agreement, rumors and information on this forthcoming move had been released, which of course were officially denied (in particular by Nicole Pasinian). Among the rumors, which they seem to have reached the ears of the Iranian leadership, is that the security of the projects and the guarding of the corridor will be taken over by the US Private Army (PMC).
The US has enough … details to solve
Although these rumors have not been confirmed as the companies that will undertake to implement the project have not been announced, what is understood – at least in the joint statement of the agreement signed – is that the project will essentially be done under Armenia’s law. It is noted that Armenia has one of the toughest lawsuits against the mercenary and mercenaries in general, for which in 2023 he had received the credit from the UN. It remains to be seen what will be the impact of… Donald Trump on Washington’s discussions with Gervanva on the issue.
The above piece of Armenia’s law is also interesting for one more reason. One of the reasons that the Zanguezur corridor has not developed for so many years is that Baku and German have not been able to negotiate in a … peaceful way the management of connections (road and rail) as issues of sovereignty and cooperation are raised.
