() Complete this Monday (11). The decision of the minister, the (Supreme Federal Court), took his lawyers, family, allies and the former president of surprise.
Bolsonaro imposed by the magistrate by participating, by VideoChamada, of a Bolsonarist act in Rio de Janeiro and talking to supporters.
The act was due to the anticipation of his arrest, something that was expected by his allies only after the final judgment of a probable sentence in the case of the coup plot, of which he is accused of being one of the leaders. That is, at the end of the semester.
With this, there was a social isolation that marks the end of their travels around the country, daily meetings and phone calls with leaders and potential candidates. As it is up to him the last word to define who will be candidate, these articulations are impaired, according to the former president’s interlocutors.
Especially on 2026, house arrest has expanded pressure from sectors of the political and business world to choose a candidate, but at the same time it made it difficult to talk to the former president-the subject now, at a time of fragile, may sound unhealthy and opportunistic.
These same allies of the former president hoped that the months until the final judgment of the coup plot would help to mature the understanding around a viable candidacy supported by Bolsonaro.
Now Bolsonaro is isolated at home, with communication and limited visits. Before Moraes authorized the trip of family members, the former first lady was the former president’s main interlocutor, which made the situation even more difficult.
President of PL Mulher, she has no good traffic in the political world and does not participate in electoral articulations.
According to Datafolha’s last survey, Michelle does better than the former president’s children in a possible dispute against. But today this scenario is considered less likely, and it must be launched into the Federal District.
Bolsonaro will have in his son Senator (PL-RJ) one of the main interlocutors.
The visits he received in this first week of forced isolation are also evidence of those who will have access to defining conversations about the presidency in the coming months: Flávio; PP President Ciro Nogueira (PI); and (Republicans), governor of.
Ciro Nogueira spent about half an hour with the former president. Leaving the condominium in the Botanical Garden, where is Bolsonaro’s high standard house, he recorded a video in which he said: “I saw that, although sad, our captain is still unshakable believing in our Brazil and trusting God.”
The interlocutors the senator showed concern with the former president, who had a deducted countenance. Both the psychological and health condition have been the main concerns of allies with Bolsonaro. He still has Hiccup crises and will receive a visit from his doctors next week.
On Thursday (7), Bolsonaro received Tarcisio, with whom he stayed for almost two hours. To journalists the governor of Sao Paulo said it was a good meeting and that Bolsonaro was serene.
Allies of the two say it was not discussed 2026, that the only possible subject today is the arrest and ways to reverse it. The governor will seek to find a way to help him, they say interlocutors, without detailing what it would be.
Any electoral movement at this time could be interpreted by the pockets with suspicion. The children of the former president, especially after his absence in Sunday’s acts.
On the one hand, Tarcisio wants distance from the theme tariff, as he evaluates that the right was worn out due to the performance of (PL-SP) in the United States. It also avoids criticizing Alexandre de Moraes directly, with whom he has a good relationship. Posture removes him from rooted pockets, but pleases business sectors.
On the other hand, he maintains a direct channel with the former president. It is expected to maintain periodic agenda to Brasilia to have these private conversations with Bolsonaro if the arrest is not reversed.
Its allies say it is essential if it is raised to succession, to maintain political alignment with Bolsonaro. Tarcisio de Freitas, but to reelection by São Paulo.
According to the last Datafolha ,. But in the second, ties with Bolsonaro and Tarcisio, on the edge of the margin of error. The former president is ineligible.
Bolsonarism also aimed at other right-wing candidates because they missed the acts on Sunday. Mouse Jr (PSD), from Paraná; Romeu Zema (Novo), from Minas Gerais; Ronaldo Caiado (União), from Goiás, did not also have the demonstrations in his cities – algo that Flávio classified the Sheet as “great strategic error”.
The same week that Bolsonaro was under house arrest there was a movement to gather governors of this field, at a meeting at the house of the governor of the Federal District, Ibaneis Rocha (MDB). The speech was to criticize the Lula (PT) government for its acting in the tariff and the Supreme Court, so they call the institutional crisis.
Participants were not intended to discuss 2026, but the theme entered the conversation. How it showed the SheetGovernor Mauro Mendes. If it were not, Mendes said, and the left continued in power, the responsible would be there too.
