The epidemic that is not discussed in Russia is spreading across both the military and civilian society. Unlike the majority of the world where HIV retreats, Moscow is losing control over it. The reasons are not only medical, but are also political.
As the latest July 2025 points out, a sharp increase in infections is the result of a combination of war conflict, political repression and a collapse of the preventive system.
According to the data of the Russian Defense Ministry, the number of new HIV cases among soldiers in the first year of the war increased more than forty times. At the same time, the Kremlin has limited or completely abolished several prevention and treatment tools that have proved effective in other countries, from sex education to cooperation with NGOs. In 2022, Moscow ranked the Elton John Foundation among “unwanted organizations”, practically impossible for her work in Russia.
According to the data referred to by Andrey Shashkov analyst in the Carnegie Politics Administration, the Russian Defense Ministry has seen a development in the beginning of the invasion of the armed forces. The number of new cases of HIV between soldiers between the first quarter and autumn 2022 increased 13 times, and by the end of the same year the increase exceeded forty times the pre-war state.
Treatment does not work on the queue, the rules are bypassing and HIV spreads further
The peak of HIV increments with Russian soldiers recorded at the turn of 2022 and 2023. In 2023, the number of new cases did not decrease, but maintained approximately twenty times the previous peace. According to Shashkov, these are only confirmed cases and the actual extent of the infection may be higher, as systematic screening is not performed in the army.
Repeated use of non -sterile needles in field hospitals, informal blood transfusions and collapsing drug logistics on the front line considers the most serious causes of the increase. An important factor is also the daily behavior of soldiers living in permanent stress: risky sexual contacts without protection and drug use, often without basic hygiene.
The analysis recalls that soldiers who are on the treatment of art (antiretroviral therapy) no longer spread the virus, provided they are taking medications regularly. However, it is in the conditions of the trench war that such continuity is almost impossible.
According to experts, impaired treatment does not only mean a loss of effect, but also increases the risk of developing resistant virus mutations. These can then be transmitted to other people, which spreads the problem outside the military environment.
Despite these findings, HIV -positive diagnosis in Russian legislation is still an official reason to withdraw from the service. However, as independent Russian media warns, in practice this regulation is often bypassed.
In the back areas, some conspiracy are looking for false positive tests to avoid levy. However, there are decisive capacities of units on the front itself, not health. According to several testimonies, the commanders refuse to dismiss soldiers from the deployment even in case of a confirmed infection.
As Russian influence hinders the fight against HIV in Eastern Europe
The growing number of infections is not only the result of war, but also a long -term weakening of the prevention system. Russian laws and state decisions discourage the most vulnerable groups from testing and treatment.
Already in 2022, the Kremlin banned the activities of several organizations dedicated to the prevention of HIV and were financed from abroad. A year later, the Supreme Court described the “international LGBT movement” as extremist. In practice, this means that many queer people, as one of the most endangered groups, have lost access to help and fears to involve any programs.
According to Russian experts, about 30,000 people of working age die every year. Most often they are men between 25 and 50 years. This loss affects the labor market, the army and social structures in a country that is already facing a demographic decline.
In addition, the mode transmits repressive approaches outside its territory. Russia’s influence in countries such as Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzia has contributed to the closure of programs to increase enlightenment and have proven proven to reduce HIV transmission among drug users in the past. In this context, the UN has already warned that Russian decisions could worsen the epidemiological situation throughout the region.
In addition to Central Asia, the HIV infection rate has also risen in other Eastern European countries, which are influenced by Russian propaganda. In these countries, the number of infected with HIV has increased by 20 %since 2010. According to European healthcare professionals, Russian propaganda is hampered by HIV treatment.
But that’s not all. According to the example of the Russian Act on the “foreign agents”, countries such as Georgia and Kazakhstan have adopted similar legislation, which caused many organizations to the fight against HIV/AIDS.
In some occupied parts of Ukraine, such as Carson, the HIV care system has almost completely disintegrated. So the war affected not only Russia, but also those territories that are under its military control.
In Ukraine, after disruption of the system during the invasion, the national HIV care program has been renewed, although aid is more humanitarian today.
When Elton John bothers more than a virus
In April 2025, the Russian General Prosecutor’s Office banned the work of the Elton John Foundation in the country. As an official reason, it stated its support for LGBT rights and the spread of “non -traditional family models”. The Foundation, which has been funding HIV prevention programs in Russia for years, has been described as a “undesirable organization”, thereby exposing its employees and partners to the risk of prosecution.
The prosecutor’s office showed that the problem is not only medical assistance, but also that Elton John “plays for those trying to sow the seeds of democracy”. In fact, the regime admitted that HIV prevention is undesirable in Russia if it is associated with the values of freedom.
At the same time, Elton John had tens of thousands of fans in Russia, and in the past he tried to communicate publicly with Vladimir Putin. Today his name in official reports is associated with propaganda, while millions of Russians live with HIV without access to treatment.
