Analysis | Trump’s bets are huge and risk -filled – and has already begun to be swallowed by the polls
Trump has been on the rise for a long time. But this may be changing
by Stephen CollinsonCNN
It is at the height of your long -range political victories. It is at the height of its undeniable personal power games. He is invading every corner of American life to impose his will and his view of the world. This is how US President Donald Trump is seven months after starting his second term.
However, its presidency may be about to enter a new phase as the consequences of its policy and policies of relentless pace begin to reveal and that the lives of Americans, as well as millions of other countries, feel the impact of their relentless ambition.
Trump did everything quickly at the same time.
The US president is obsessed with killing his greatest dragons, such as global free trade. And also in more makeshift goals, with which most presidents are not usually concerned: how to restore a presidential physical fitness test in schools or print their architectural brand in the White House.
Commercial onslaught is the typical Trump: imposed the most punitive tariffs on imports from great depression, based on a longtime personal obsession by an economic theory that is ridiculed by experts. Trump says he is reactivating the industry, but the sector has lost a total net of 14,000 jobs in May and June, according to federal data.
And the rates – a tax on all who buy products – can shoot inflation.
The president fulfilled his word and secured the safety of the southern border, honoring a promise that helped him regain the White House.
But will Americans now retreat to their Draconian deportation methods, while masked federal agents sweep the neighbors of the streets and the government builds armed fields to stop undocumented immigrants?
Trump had a legislative triumph by approving his “great and beautiful bill” and extending tax cuts coming from the first term. The White House insists that the measure will trigger resounding economic growth as well as job creation. However, at what extent does this benefit to the rich if they come to close rural hospitals and thousands of people lose the medicaid?
Trump’s Secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert Kennedy Jr., promised to “make America healthy again.” However, the risks are huge. Especially if Kennedy cancels more than $ 500 billion of dollars for vaccine financing, such as those who ended the covid-19 pandemic, exposing the US to a new public health crisis that could cost thousands of lives.
However, Trump is ready for his most important foreign policy action to date, upon receiving Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska next Friday in an attempt to repair his failed attempt to end Ukraine war. This breakthrough can save thousands of lives and even apply to Trump the long -awaited Nobel Prize. Still, if you give in to Putin’s demands, you can make a historical mistake that opens the way to a future Russian expansionism and destroys the image, created by the White House, “President of Peace.”
There is a conductive thread in most Trump actions, whether intimidating political enemies and instrumentalizing the legal system, or forcing commercial concessions of small and vulnerable nations. Trump is always evaluating his influence on an opponent and trying to impose his personal will.
However, even if he displays the American power to be effective, Trump is at the same time away from allies, who were multipliers of the US strength and global power. What will happen the next time the United States wants the help of allies – for example, after a September 11th attack? Will populations, unhappy with the way Trump intimidated their leaders, will allow their countries run in defense of the United States? In the entertaining, Trump may also be pushing allies that made furious to the arms of a new superpower: China. Trump’s failure has so far to start commercial concessions to Beijing, which continues to use the trump of rare land metals. In this way, the US President risks making the commercial agenda itself.
Admittedly, Trump’s bets are huge and risk -filled. There are many who can end up results. However, the story is full of presidents who misunderstood their mandates and exceeded.
If some of Trump’s most ambitious policies generate adverse results, the coming months can dictate whether this posture is really to maintain.
The president is already being swallowed by polls: the approval rate is in the 40% to 45% range in most of them. The government’s failure to contain the scandal about the refusal to publicize Jeffrey Epstein’s files, however, exposed a division on Trump’s base for the first time.
If public opinion turns into force against Trump, it may be at stake a dangerous time at national level, with Republicans paying the price in next year’s interchange elections. After all, this is a president who believes to have almost unlimited power – and who tried to steal an election he lost in 2020.
Trump’s growing authoritarian vein proceeds from its approach to unlocking executive powers through dubious national emergencies. The attacks he has made to the judicial power, the media, universities and authorities threaten the principles of the republican government. And all this happens a year before Trump presides over the 250th anniversary of the American Revolution, which released the US from the unexplained whims of kings – with whom Trump looks more and more.
The US president is already protecting from a negative political reaction.
Some of its recent actions, including the dismissal of the government official responsible for unemployment data and its attempt to gain five new places in the US representatives from unprecedented electoral manipulation in Texas, seem attempts to subvert reality and avoid paying the political price if the economy gets worse.
Trump’s most notable political transformations
Tariffs are the most impressive example of Trump’s success in changing political and economic conventions. The United States has spent decades to build a global free trade system. Trump destroyed him in weeks.
“We are raising billions of dollars,” Trump reacted in an interview with CNBC last week, talking about the government’s revenues with import taxes. However, although Trump never admits him, the final price of tariffs will eventually be paid by American consumers, who are already tired of the highest costs of food and housing.
The government claims that the global economy will adjust to tariffs, which start at 10% and can reach much higher values in some countries. Trump even argues that all Americans will get better. So far it has escaped the worst consequences of the reform, to which almost all economists oppose.
“At this time, tariffs are not necessarily creating the type of economic chaos that has been foreseen,” said Kristen Solis Anderson, CNN’s republican researcher and political commentator, on the program “State of the Union” on Sunday. Still, things will change if consumers eventually pay higher prices. “It’s hard to find a way out of the situation if prices are even rising, if retailers eventually say they can no longer absorb the climbs. There is a real potential for political reaction.”
Trump appears in a victorious ride, promoting commercial agreements after intimidating partners such as Japan, Indonesia and the European Union, for agreements that benefited, in an unbalanced way, the US. However, the details of these agreements suggest that they are less impressive than they seem. The hundreds of thousands of millions of dollars in foreign investments that are promised in the US proves questionable. Foreign governments cannot force companies in their countries to invest in the US. And most agreements do not open, as Trump states, protected sectors of foreign markets to American products.
At best, agreements include promises for the US and their commercial opponents to work together to find solutions. And while trade with the US is charged, other nations can still negotiate freely with each other, which means they have an incentive to find non -American markets. Another dangerous area for Trump is immigration – his emblematic theme, which helped him to overcome the presidency twice but which led to extreme supervision efforts, pushing the moderates in his first term. The approach has been even more punitive now in the second term. Flights from undocumented migrants set out to El Salvador and an oppressive prison. The rights to the due process of some migrants were violated. And the government plans more fields for migrants, such as the already famous “Alligator Alcatraz” in Florida. All of this has been accompanied by a firm and performative posture to attract voters from Trump’s hardest line.
Arizona border state senator Mark Kelly, who is a Democrat, warned Sunday that Trump was too far away. “Border security was not working during President Biden’s term. I pressed the government on the subject,” Kelly said on CBS’s “Face The Nation.” “However, it was now a drastic change in another direction. I don’t think that’s what the American people want.”
In a CNN poll held in July, 55% of respondents considered that the president had gone too far in the deportation of immigrants illegally living in the US. It is a number that has risen 10 percentage points since February. Most also oppose the construction of large detention centers to welcome migrants arrested and the thousands of millions of dollars in expenses included in Trump’s large bill for public expense cut.
The approval of this bill was Trump’s largest legislative achievement in its two terms. It is even more impressive given the small majority of the Republican Party in the House. However, it is also one of the least popular things Trump has ever done. About six out of 10 Americans oppose the bill and most expect it to harm the economy.
Trump is a unique politician. It was helped by a Republican party that marches his rhythm. And by a Democratic Party that doesn’t even have rhythm.
However, unless Trump broke political logic by breaking the mold of the presidency, an account adjustment may be approaching.
What happens below will define how the story will remember your second term.
