IPCA retreats 0.09 percentage point compared to June and completes 8 months above the inflation target ceiling
Brazil’s inflation was 5.23% in July 12 months, according to data released by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) this Thursday (12.ago.2025).
The IPCA (National Consumer Price Index), which measures official inflation, retreated 0.09 percentage point compared to the 5.35% registered in June. It is the 8th month in a row outside the interval of 1.5% to 4.5% permitted by the continuous inflation target.
At the monthly base, there was a 0.26% increase in July. Had been 0.24% in June. The result was below market projections, which expected a rate of 0.37%.
In the accumulated 2025, inflation is 3.26%.
Inflation in July
The July variation was influenced by 6 of the 9 products of products and services surveyed by IBGE. The highlight was the housing group, which advanced 0.91% and contributed 0.14 pp to the IPCA of the month.
Already the food and beverage group showed negative variation (-0.27%) in June to July, as well as the groups clothing (-0.54%) and communication (-0.09%).
Inflation target
The CMN (National Monetary Council) has set a continuous inflation target of 3%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage point up or down.
By the rule in force since 2025, it is considered non-compliance if the annualized rate is out of the interval for 6 consecutive months. If this happens, the Central Bank needs to publish a letter explaining the reasons and measures to bring inflation back to the goal.
Selic rate
The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) maintained Selic at 15% per year at the last meeting (30.Jul.2025). The movement had already been signaled by members of COPOM (Monetary Policy Committee) at the previous collegiate meeting in June. Financial agents were also expected to maintain interest rates. This is the (PDF – 31 kb) of the statement.
