Ukrainian Command devalued the situation but sent one of its most experienced units to wag a breakthrough that can have catastrophic consequences for Kiev’s forces
The Russian Armed Forces has penetrated a small but important section of the Battle Front in the Donetsk region in East Ukraine, threatening not only the city of Pokrovsk but also a fundamental highway to Ukrainian logistics operations, which can make it difficult to defend the important location of Kostiantynivka, according to Deepstate’s Ukrainian analysts. The group base their analysis on a mix of geolocation techniques of video images and units testimonies on the ground.
“The situation is quite chaotic because the enemy, having found breaches in defense, is advancing deeper, quickly trying to gain a position and gathering troops to advance further, while some people in charge of a particular brigade or do not understand the extent of the problem or are presenting the situation as ‘under control’,” the group writes.
This is one of the most successful attacks of the Russian Armed Forces since the summer offensive began. According to Deepstate analysts, the Russian army took advantage of the numerical advantage of the infantry number to find gaps in the Ukrainian defenses north of Pokrovsk. Once the vulnerabilities were found, the Russian Armed Forces sent several slight units, equipped with motorcycles and golf cars, which were capable of penetrating almost 20 kilometers beyond the defensive line.
Sources on the ground, cited by the Ukrainian press, report that the Russian military is circumventing locations such as Zolotyi Kolodiaz and Shakhove, which have several pre-prepared defensive fortifications and structures, consolidating positions and waiting for reinforcements. According to Deepstate analysts, the city of Dobropillia, which is essential for the logistics operation of this front sector in the Donetsk region, could fall faster than Pokrovsk.
“After consolidation and final accumulation, attempts to advance deeper into the territory will be inevitable, and drone teams will be brought, which will complicate the restructuring of alternative logistics and the maintenance of positions surrounding by the Ukrainian forces,” read the Deepstate analysis.
Image of Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, north of the city of Pokrovsk, in the Donetsk region (Deepstate UA)
This is because the Russian advance has reached a crucial highway to the Logistics of the Ukrainian Army, the T-0515 that connects Pokrovsk to Dobropillia. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian forces managed to ban 2.5 kilometers of the road, which puts even more pressure on the Ukrainian military, who are increasingly attacked by Russian drones on the way from the front. Although not yet an operational achievement, ISW indicates that Russian forces intend to transform these tactical advantages into a more significant advance in the coming days, potentially threatening important Ukrainian fortresses such as Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
The situation seems to have been hastily for the absence of Ukrainian reserves, which appear to be busy in other parts of the front, such as the Kursk or Sumy region. The Ukrainian forces are scattered along an increasing front, while the number of soldiers is progressively harder to replace. According to Kyiv Independent, which cites an officer as anonymous, Ukraine is recruiting 30,000 soldiers per month, but only a third of these are in a position to combat.
Ukrainian Armed Forces Command seems to recognize the danger that this attack represents, issuing a statement where it admits that “the enemy” is taking advantage of its “numerical superiority” to infiltrate “small groups” beyond the first Ukrainian defensive line. This led General Oleksandr Syrskyi to allocate “additional resources to detect and destroy enemy sabotage groups that penetrate beyond the defense line.”
The 1st Azov Body of the National Guard was sent this Tuesday to the region with the order to assume defensive positions in the location and lock the Russian advances. The unit, which has been coming to the region over the past few days, has described the situation as “complex and dynamic”, with Russian troops trying to advance at all costs, despite human and material losses.
At the same time, the leadership of the army group responsible for this region seemed to devalue the size and extent of this attack. Dnipro’s strategic operational forces spokesman, Lieutenant Colonel Viktor Trehubov, said the situation in the area is confusing, but that the defenses’ penetration happened with a small group of ten Russian soldiers that exceeded the first line of Ukrainian defense in front of Dobropillia and Pokrovsk, but that does not mean that the group has managed to obtain territory control.
“We need to understand that these are small groups of several people. Their presence is recorded, which is why in open source maps it seems that” my God, the Russians have advanced 12 kilometers within the Ukrainian territory. “But we must understand that it is not about taking control of this territory.
For ISW, the Russian offensive timing appears to have been strategically coordinated to create the “informational conditions” to press the United States on the eve of the summit that will bring together Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska’s American territory. Group analysts believe the operation is to demonstrate that Russian territorial gains are proof that the West and Ukraine will inevitably have territorial concessions.
