Carlos Gustavo Poggio, Professor of Political Science at Berea College, analyzed, during the WWthat possible ceasefire agreements in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can serve as a strategy for Vladimir Putin to gain time and achieve broader goals in the region.
According to Poggio, the complexity of negotiations involves not only territorial issues of areas occupied and attached by Russia, but mainly the issue of Ukrainian sovereignty. The expert points out that the Russian fundamental requirement is to prevent the autonomy of Ukraine, either through direct military occupation or by commitments that limit its approximation with NATO and European Union.
The expert points out that this analysis is not based on speculation, but on a pattern observed over more than two decades, including open statements by members of the Russian government on state television. For Ukraine, Poggio argues, conflict has existential character, as the country’s own survival as an independent state is at stake.
Poggio warns that the Russian goal would be to consolidate current territorial gains to facilitate future occupations, eventually aiming at the incorporation of Ukraine into a vision of a great Russian empire. He notes that this perspective aligns with a geopolitical view that privileges areas of influence and the use of brute force over international law.
