A Russian offensive through one of the key defensive lines in eastern Ukraine has brought to light one of the weakest points in the country: The critical shortage of troops. This happened days before the US president, Donald Trump,, Vladimir Putin, to address the future of the conflict (although there were hardly any results).
Although still The magnitude of the advance towards Pokrovsk is unknown, A vital logistics node in Donetsk, experts and former responsible for the Department of Defense warn the environment That this raid reveals a structural problem that could have influenced the Washington position at the Friday summit.
“This reinforces the recognition that Ukraine has a military disadvantage in this aspect”, He pointed to the same medium cited Dan Caldwell, ex -analysis of the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth. He also added that there are no easy solutions: “There are really no good options to change this root … What has been brewing for Ukrainians is fundamentally a personnel problem.”
In addition to the troop deficit, Caldwell pointed to the lack of certain supplies, technological limitations and the Russian domain in the use of drones as factors that have contributed to the recent profits of the Kremlin. “If you do not have enough infantry to maintain a line or ensure a city,” he warned, “you will eventually be displaced by a force that does have the troops to do so.”
According to figures estimated by Caldwell himself and confirmed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia It enjoys an advantage of up to three soldiers for each Ukrainian. Although kyiv claims to inflict three times lower to Moscow, numerical superiority is still weighing.
Zelensky also recognized a recent Russian advance of about 10 kilometers to Dobropillia, north of Pokrovsk. In response, Ukraine displayed his first Azov body to stop the advance. “The body units have planned and executed actions to block the enemy forces in the area,” the group said in a statement.
In prorruss, Pokrovsk The area receives special attention from both sides.
Rob Lee, researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, explained that this offensive It is part of a pattern: Russian attacks taking advantage of the gaps generated by the shortage of Ukrainian soldiers. “The Ukrainian brigades have few troops. In particular, the infantry component is very small,” he explained.
Often, the positions are defended by just three soldiers, which leaves many Vulnerable lines against small Russian incursions That, although limited, they manage to infiltrate. For a while, Ukraine managed to balance the balance with the use of drones. However, Russia has responded by improving its aerial and tactical arsenal, including planning pumps, Shahed type drones and precise attacks with artillery.
“Russia has continued to evolve … They have improved in the selection of objectives and the use of UAVS,” Lee said. This combination of infantry and aerial intelligence tactics is making a dent in the defensive abilities of Ukraine.
Beyond territorial gains, the true threat to Ukraine is the difficulty in sustaining long -term war effort, according to several experts. “That is the most important problem “, Lee said. “Sustainability,” he added.
Mark Cancan, former official of the US Administration and Budget Office, remarked that the problem is not how much territory Russia gains, but the possibility of a total collapse of the Ukrainian defenses, which would return to the war its character of maneuver and mobility, in which Moscow has all to win.
Meanwhile, analysts such as John Helin point out that each new Russian penetration exhausts Ukrainian reserves and stretches even more a very demanded front line. Although it discards an immediate threat to key cities such as Kramorsk or Sloviansk, it warns that the front is “To the limit of their possibilities.”
In this way, Putin could use the latest advances as an argument to demand permanent control of Donetsk and Luhansk, in addition to Jersón and Zaporiyia, As suggested by the special American envoy Steve Witkoff. All these regions, together with Crimea, have already been claimed by Moscow through internationally not recognized referendums.
Helin clarifies that Russian success is not guaranteed, but admits that these advances They give more weight to the demands of the Russian leader. “Even if they do not change everything immediately, they do reinforce their narrative and their position of force for negotiation,” he says.
