The governor (Republicans) intensified criticism of the Government (PT) and expanded meetings with entrepreneurs from the agricultural and financial sectors in the two weeks following the decree of house arrest of the former president ().
Although he claims that he works for his reelection in, Tarcisio is considered the main name of Bolsonarism to run for the presidency in 2026.
Bolsonaro was arrested on August 4, by decision of Minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the Supreme Court (STF), who understood that the former president broke precautionary measures in the investigation that investigates possible coercion and obstruction of investigations by his son, the deputy (PL-SP), who is in the United States.
In the early days after the arrest, Tarcisio maintained government agendas in São Paulo, with meetings at the Bandeirantes Palace and visits to the interior, in cities such as Pirapora do Bom Jesus, Holambra, Acudos, Lençóis Paulista and two streams. The exception was the trip to Brasilia on the 7th, when he went to visit the ally and, along with other opposition governors ,.
Last week, the routine gained more political character. There were three lectures for entrepreneurs from the financial and agribusiness sector, one, in the gardens, which gathered names related to pockets, and trips to Cuiabá (MT) and Sorocaba (SP). In two of the lectures, he explicitly defended Lula’s departure.
Dinner in Sao Paulo was released on Latin social networks. The singer, author of the song “Me Leva”, who gained a version in the campaign jingle from Tarcisio to the São Paulo government, opened the doors of the house to businessmen who heard the governor talk about the public policies he executes, according to reports. The event brought together Bolsonarist entrepreneurs such as Flávio Rocha, owner of Riachuelo network.
In, Tarcisio said that “Brazil can no longer stand over spending, no longer tolerates tax increases, no longer tolerates corruption, can no longer stand the PT, can no longer stand Lula.”
The next day, in Cuiabá, in a lecture promoted by Itaú with agribusiness entrepreneurs, it was even more straightforward: “It’s time for us to change the driver, it’s time to change the pilot, because this car can walk very fast. We have a Ferrari in hand, but a very bad pilot. This is the message we have to give next year.”
The trip to Mato Grosso was seen by allies as a sign of change of posture. Until weeks ago, the governor avoided attending events outside the state so as not to reinforce the image of national pre-campaign. This time, he accepted the title of Cuiabano citizen, posed for photos with residents and circulated alongside Governor Mauro Mendes (União Brasil).
Following the arrest of the former president, Tarcisio also changed his strategy regarding the tariff imposed by the Donald Trump government.
Until last month, as the SheetTarcisio estimated that the 50% surcharge on Brazilian products was negative for his political field. He feared that economic impacts were associated with pockets, as Eduardo Bolsonaro is appointed as sponsor of the measure. In reserved conversations, he even admitted that he would lose to Lula if the election was held at that time.
With the scenario reconfigured after the arrest, his political group reorganized. Since then, the governor has publicly charged that Lula will open negotiations with Trump. “How many times will we have the connection of the Brazilian president with the American president? This is what will make a difference,” he said at the Brazilian Agribusiness Congress in São Paulo.
Already in Sorocaba, in the delivery of a PM battalion, he said that the scenario of lack of dialogue “is very comfortable” to Lula and mentioned that Russian President Vladmir Putin, in war with Ukraine, met with Trump.
Despite the turn, Tarcisio denies that Bolsonaro’s arrest has resulted in intensification of his agenda. “Nothing to do. We always made a schedule of all natures to serve everyone,” he said in Sorocaba. According to him, the project is to remain in São Paulo. “Regarding next year’s election, my idea is to stay in Sao Paulo, is to compete for the election. There is a lot starting now that we will deliver in 2029, 2030.”
In addition to the change of attitude towards the tariff, the governor also moved away from the STF ministers. Behind the scenes, politicians from different parties say that Tarcisio has good traffic in court and could act as a bridge with the pockets. Prior to Bolsonaro’s arrest, it was expected to open dialogue with Gilmar Mendes, a dean of the court, at an event in Brasilia, but the meeting did not occur.
Last Monday, in São Paulo, Tarcisio of the State Court of Auditors (ECA) which was attended by Moraes. He chose to follow in agenda with Mayor Ricardo Nunes (MDB), close ally, in the delivery of surveillance cameras integrated to a municipal program. The gesture was interpreted as a sign of distancing from the Supreme Ministers.
In the market and politics, Tarcisio’s movement is seen as an attempt to occupy the vacuum left by Bolsonaro’s arrest. For allies, even with public negatives, the series of travel, speeches and meetings increasingly brings the governor closer to the role of natural candidate for Bolsonarism to the presidency.
