Gabriel Leal de Barros states that the volume of resources is high and the surcharge has the potential to “create a problem” for Brazilian external accounts
The 39-year-old chief economist said the application of US companies in Brazil is high. In your assessment, it has the potential for “Create a problem” For Brazil’s external accounts, as in the balance of payments.
“The main concern is the external investments, which are in fact large. Brazil receives a very large flow of foreign investment from US companies, US investors.”declared Barros in an interview with Poder360.
Watch the interview (30min30s):
The economist said the impact would be “Dozens of billions of dollars”. (Central Bank) data show that IDP (direct investment in the country) totaled US $ 1.3 trillion at the end of 2023 – a record. There was an increase of US $ 258.8 billion compared to 2022.
The numbers are in the latest direct investment report on BC, published in December 2024. Here A (PDF – 5 MB).
Only the US represented US $ 280.4 billion for the immediate investor criterion in 2023.
Impact on GDP
The Brazilian economic activity would be affected by $ 20 billion to $ 30 billion annualized, even after almost 700 Brazilian products free from the additional 40%tariff.
It would be an effect “modesto” About the GDP, according to Barros. On Wednesday (13.ago.2025), the President (PT) Provisional Measure, which the Plateau baptized from Brazil sovereign.
The text, with force of law, on the afternoon of Wednesday (13.ago). In general, it brings the release of R $ 30 billion in credit to Brazilian exporters.
The package was launched the level of interest that will be charged on Brazilian exporters. The government also R $ 9.5 billion outside the fiscal target from the MP.
This meets what the Minister of Finance, had signaled on Tuesday (12.ago), which would be within the primary result.
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BRICS
The economist assesses that the president’s (PT) for an alternative currency to the dollar in BRICS negotiations had a “Important weight” in the American in Brazilian products. According to Barros, this is sought by countries that have suffered sanctions or are at war.
“Until then Brazil was not on this list of countries with sanctions and rates. This is the case of Russia, China, Iran. Countries that actually face restrictions and there seek other ways to make their business transactions running away from the dollar. But Brazil, despite having no war, has no geopolitical conflict, came free in this conflict.”declared the expert.
The economist states that Lula climbed during the BRICS meeting in Rio in August, when he signaled that he will not give up doing business in currencies other than the dollar.
“The president came through the BRICS event, so say, instigating some reaction from the US economy, the United States, the US government. It has arrived several times, on several consecutive days, it seems to cause a purposeful reaction of Trump ”said Barros.
Below, other excerpts from the interview:
- Fiscal policy – “The government has been producing expansionist fiscal impulses recurrently. […] The persistence of this fiscal impulse is great. And that explains why GDP has been surprised so far and why inflation has also been so far from the goal ”;
- Precatory delay – “A pec It is another government instrument to maintain this fiscal impulse. […] By renegotiating precatory, renegotiating debt of states and municipalities, this expands tax space to spend not only at the federal sphere, but also in state and municipal spheres”;
- fees – “In our base scenario, the Central Bank will start the interest cut cycle in January, in the first quarter of next year”;
- inflation – “Next year, we believe in an inflation just below 5% only at 4.8%. […] We continue with projections above those with which the Central Bank works at the moment“.
