The influential Russian analyst Alexander Gabuev, director of Carnegie Eurasia Center since his transfer to Berlin after the large -scale invasion of Ukraine, has launched in Italy a pessimistic diagnosis for kyiv. In an interview withGabuev has assured that “Ukraine is losing this war to idle” and that Putin “is aware of it”, although the contest is not yet directed towards an immediate defeat. “Not only Zelenski will not be able to recover the borders of 1991, but the terms of an agreement that freezes the war will probably not be satisfactory for Ukraine,” he explained.
Gabuev has detailed several factors that, in his opinion, incline the war pulse to Moscow in the short term. The first is the deficit of men in the Ukrainian Front. “Many are stolen and social confidence in the mobilization system is broken,” he said, remembering that the kyiv government has even softened the legislation so as not to punish the first dropout with criminal crime. Meanwhile, Kremlin manages to mobilize around 30,000 soldiers per month, despite the magnitude of the casualties.
The expert has warned that Russia already rehearses electronic recruitment formulas and expands digital control over the population, in an attempt to anticipate social wear of war. At the same time, Moscow has cut the technological advantage that kyiv maintained in the use of drones and keeps its army with sufficient artillery reserves to “continue applying terror throughout the front line”. The perspective that Gabuev traces is that of a conflict increasingly similar to the great war, “a stagnation until one of the parties cannot resist more.”
To the shortage of personnel and ammunition, the fatigue of the European partners of Ukraine is added. According to Gabuev, community arsenals no longer have large hidden reserves of drones or projectiles and some border countries, such as Poland or Finland, begin to consider retaining resources for their own safety. “The European defense industry is growing, but its times are slow. That is why the next 12 months will be the most dangerous phase,” he said.
The analyst has also recognized that the Russian economic system begins to resent under the weight of the sanctions and pressure of the arms industry. He has cited the technological degradation of Iskander missiles, growing inflation and the deterioration of public services for the benefit of military spending. However, he considers that Putin retains margin to continue prioritizing war machinery at the expense of areas such as education or health.
Regarding the encounter between Trump and Putin in Alaska, Gabuev believes that the leader of Moscow does not seek a truce. “Putin has understood that China will not abandon it. He has the confidence that, if he continues to fight, sooner or later he will get what he wants,” he concluded.
