Despite the fall, the index follows above the inflation target limit established by the Central Bank, from 3% per year, with tolerance of 1.5 percentage point for plus or less
Economists consulted by the 12th consecutive week, the forecast of to 2025. According to the, released on Monday (18), the estimate for the IPCA fell from 5.05% to 4.95% per year, being below 5% for the first time since January. Despite the fall, the index follows above the inflation target limit established by the BC, from 3% per year, with tolerance of 1.5 percentage points for more or less – that is, the ceiling is 4.5%.
The review occurs after the disclosure of data, which showed that July inflation rose 0.26%, below the expectation of the, which project 0.36%. It was the smallest rise for the month since 2023. Analysts highlight that food prices and industrial goods were below expected. Another factor pointed out by economists is the impact of the 50% tariff imposed by the United States on Brazilian products, which tends to reduce economic activity and, consequently, pressing downward prices.
Other projections of the Focus Bulletin
- 2026: Forecast inflation fell from 4.41% to 4.40%;
- 2027: expectation maintained at 4%;
- 2028: Stable projection at 3.8%.
In the scenario of economic growth, the market maintained the forecast for GDP of 2025 by 2.21% and from 2026 by 1.87%. For 2027, there was a slight retreat from 1.93% to 1.87%. The basic interest rate () should end 2025 by 15% per year, the same level current, and the dollar was kept at $ 5.60 at the end of next year.
What is at stake
Since January, Brazil adopts the continuous inflation target regime, which requires the accumulated index in 12 months to be within the range of 1.5% to 4.5%. If the goal is breached for six months in a row, the BC president must send a letter to the Minister of Finance explaining the reasons. In June, for the second time in the year, Gabriel Galipolo had to justify the non -compliance with the goal, pointing out the exchange, electricity, heated economic activity and climate events.
Posted by Felipe Dantas
*Report produced with the aid of AI
