For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a lot is at stake in relation to how much he can trust President Donald Trump.
On Monday (18), Trump offered only vacancy guarantees that the United States would play a role in ensuring Ukraine’s safety if Zelensky accepted an agreement with Vladimir Putin to end the war.
“Let’s make sure it works,” Trump said at the beginning of a several hour meeting with Zelensky and a delegation of European leaders in the White House. “And I think if we get peace, it will work. I have no doubt.”
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The meeting ended with and some advance towards one, in a place yet to be defined. But the question about how reliable Trump may be refers to the history of changeable positions and volatile feelings of the US president in relation to Ukraine and other diplomatic crises, especially in high -risk negotiations.
It is a high bet for Zelensky, who has faced a war started by Russia for over three and a half years.
“They are not only interested in such promises. They are not interested in listening to President Trump say ‘you can count on me,” said William B. Taylor Jr., former USA USA in Ukraine. “They will not accept a simple political guarantee. This does not offer the safety they need.”
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Positions
After the meeting, Zelensky stated that the safety guarantee discussion involved the purchase of $ 90 billion on US weapons through Europe and also the acquisition of Ukrainian drones throughout the US. According to him, a formal agreement still remains.
Even so, the mere fact that Trump speaks of guarantees was once a change in relation to his previous position, that Ukraine’s defense should be exclusively in charge of Europeans.
And it was not the only recent turn. Days earlier, Trump had threatened Putin with “severe consequences” if he did not accept an immediate ceasefire-a condition required by Kiev before starting any negotiation for permanent peace.
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But after meeting Putin on Friday in Alaska, Trump began to defend the line of Russian leader: negotiating a comprehensive peace agreement without immediate ceasefire.
Over the weekend, he redirected the pressure to Zelensky, stating that the Ukrainian leader could end the war “almost immediately, if he wanted, or keep fighting.”
European support, but American uncertainty
Trump’s advisers classified both the meeting with Putin and Monday’s meetings at the White House and crucial steps towards peace. European leaders also praised the president’s efforts to bring both sides to the table despite the absence of concrete details about any proposal.
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“I’m really excited,” Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, Trump, during the televised part of the meeting. “The fact that you say that you are willing to participate in security guarantees is a big step. It’s really a breakthrough.”
Still, it remains little clarity about the degree of involvement of the US.
Daniel Fried, a former US-Basker in Poland, said a possible model would be European countries to commit to providing military assets within Ukraine in the event of a new Russian attack, while Trump would support defense resources in neighboring countries.
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“I can’t believe Zelensky will be content with a verbal promise,” said Fried. “If he hears Trump that the commitment is important, he will want to know what the mechanisms are.”
History of unstable promises
The distrust is not just from the Ukrainian dossier. Trump has already given reasons for world leaders to doubt their guarantees:
- He threatened to retaliate Hamas hard if hostage in Gaza were not released, but has moved away from the local humanitarian crisis in recent weeks;
- He made repeated threats of tariffs during his term, but retreated several times in the last minute;
- He even considered the forced displacement of Palestinians in Gaza, abandoning the idea after pressure from Arab countries;
- He alternated positions in relation to Putin, sometimes putting himself as capable of negotiating peace, sometimes threatening the Russian leader with economic sanctions.
On Monday, in a rare moment of frankness, Trump admitted that the conflict in Ukraine-which he had promised to resolve in 24 hours-is harder than predicted.
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“I thought it would be one of the easiest,” he said. “In fact, it’s one of the most difficult and very complex.”
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