O dollar He rose in the local market on Monday (18), and once again exceeded R $ 5.40, aligned with the appreciation of the US currency abroad. After the border depreciation round and without relevant indicators, investors became cautious and made profits. With a maximum of R $ 5,4445, the cash dollar rose 0.67%, to R $ 5,4344. It loses 2.97% in the month and 12.07% in the year. The real, leader among emerging in 2025, took on Monday the largest losses among the most liquid currencies.
In addition to the negotiations for ceasefire in Ukraine, attention turns to signs of monetary relief in the US. The financial market is waiting for the Federal Reserve minutes (Fed, the US Central Bank) on Wednesday) (20), and the speech of Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday (22). Dollar thermometer compared to six strong currencies, the Dollar Index (DXY) exceeded 98,000 points, with a maximum of 98,186. It still retreats 1.90% in August and 9% in the year. Treasuries interest rose moderately.
In the afternoon, US President Donald Trump promised “very positive” actions and safety guarantees for Ukrainians in case of ceasefire with Russia. He proposed a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, “as soon as possible.” Zelensky said he had a “great conversation” with the Republican.
Central Bank Economic Policy Director (BC), Diogo Guillen, disallowed Selic’s bet this year. He recognized moderation of the activity, but said the economy is still growing above potential. He recalled that after pausing the tightening and keeping Selic at 15% per year, the BC still seeks the rate capable of bringing inflation to the goal. “Once this appropriate interest rate is determined, it will be stopped for a very long time,” said Guillen.
Stock exchange
With the support of the first-rate actions, except Vale (on -0.23%), Ibovespa on Monday (18), interrupted a negative series of three sessions and resumed the level of 137,000 points, also seen at the closing of last Tuesday, then at the highest level since July 8-the day before the United States tariff.
On Monday, the index oscillated from 136,340.60, a minimum corresponding to the opening level, up to 137,901.59 points, on the peak of the day, played in the early afternoon. At the end, he showed a gain of 0.72%at 137,321.64 points, just below last Tuesday, in the house then 137.9 thousand. This Monday’s financial turnover was $ 19.8 billion. In the month, Ibovespa advances 3.19% and, in the year, up 14.17%.
In a volatile session, future oil contracts closed in advance just above 1% on Monday, with the attention aimed at the meeting of US President Donald Trump, with Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, and other European leaders to discuss the end of the war in Ukraine. Investors also followed the developments in the Middle East.
In B3, in addition to Petrobras (on +0.80%, PN +0.63%), the day was generally recovered for first-class papers, after a Friday when Ibovespa had been very close to stability, waiting for developments in the situation in Ukraine. The waiting measure extended to this Monday, with the meeting, in the White House, between Trump and European leaders, says Ian Lopes, economist of Valor Investimentos.
At Ibovespa’s winning tip, Raízen (+10.58%) -with potential investment from Petrobras in the company -, ahead of Cosan (+5.29%) and Auren (+4.72%). On the opposite side, prio (-3.14%), Natura (-3.06%) and Cyrela (-1.59%). Among the large banks, the gains were between 1.26% (Santander Unit) and 2.03% (Banco do Brasil ON) at closing.
According to Felipe Paletta, an EQI Research strategist, more than 80% of Ibovespa’s shares closed in Positivo this weekend, gradually reconing the rate of the barrier of 140,000 points, level near the historic maxim, 141,000, July 4. “The scenario that the market is most discussed at the moment is the moment for interest cuts, and Focus already brings IPCA below 5% for this year. IBC-BR, a little worse than expectations, already brings a cooling of the activity, which leads to a lower level future interest convergence, given that the index is like a GDP proxy,” he adds.
Thus, this Monday, highlighting the reading of the Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-BR), which reinforced the perception that monetary policy is having an effect on the economy, also highlights Lopes, from Valor Investimentos, referring to a relatively dismantled agenda in this first session of the week. The June indicator core already operates below the growth potential, says Banco UBS BB in a report. This performance, evaluates UBS BB, is linked to farming setbacks (-2.3%) and industry (-0.1%), while, at the positive end, services still had modest growth of 0.1%.
The IBC-BR fell 0.1% in June on the margin, by the seasonal adjustment series, near the floor of the 0.2% drop Broadcast projections estimates. The median indicated a 0.05%increase, reports Broadcast journalist Ana Scabello, the Estado Real -Time News System.
In the external news, US President Donald Trump said on Monday that in a week or two, the world will know if we “come to a solution” for the war between Russia and Ukraine. According to the Republican, Russian leader Vladimir Putin is also “seeking an answer” for the conflict and, despite expressing optimism about a ceasefire, stressed that “it is possible that we do not get there.”
The statements were made at the White House before the multilateral meeting between Trump, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, and European leaders. Trump once again mentioned the possibility of a trilateral meeting with Zelensky and Putin as a “important” step to advance in the end of the end of the conflict.
