Trump changes his tone and opened the door to give what many Europeans always wanted: a “backstop”
The shadow of the ambush in the Oval Room in February hung over the meeting in Washington this Monday. The Ukrainian President, visibly tense, was preparing to face a Donald Trump who had just, in Alaska, days earlier. But this time, Zelensky. The US President as a way of giving Ukraine security guarantees, something that European leaders referred to that can be “historical.” The experts heard by CNN admit that the American presence would give something that Europeans cannot give but can exceed “a red line” from Kremlin.
“Troops on the ground is a red line. The US President’s proposal means that Ukraine does not enter the NATO, but Nato enters Ukraine. This is a red line of the Russians, who want to make Ukraine have its army reduced to a national guard. If they will get it or not, it is another issue,” explains Major General Agostinho Costa.
In the past, several European leaders admitted the possibility of sending military to Ukraine to support a peace effort, particularly France, the United Kingdom and the Baltic States. It would be a coalition led by Paris and London and included up to 50,000 soldiers for deterrent in strategic areas such as airspace and black sea protection. But this project has never been able to take shape for not having enough deterrent strength to wage a future Russian attack on Ukraine. “It is not the presence of 30,000 Europeans that will deter Russia,” says Lieutenant General Marco Serronha.
In part, this European intention retreated due to the reluctance of other powers to participate, especially Germany and Poland, which raised serious doubts about European defense capacity without an American backstop. But both Trump and his predecessor, Joe Biden, have always refused this possibility. Until now. This Monday, in statements to journalists, Trump admitted that he is willing to “greatly help” European countries, which will be “the first line of defense” against Russia on the continent. Asked about the possibility of sending military personnel to the ground to help Europeans, Trump says he is willing to “work with everyone” to ensure that peace “is long lasting.” : Trump did not commit to anything ,.
Trump’s tone change, not discarding American troops on the ground, marks a turn. “Security guarantees must have some soldiers on the ground and this may not be a good thing,” says Marco Serronha, pointing out the risk of climbing. The possibility of an American force, even if limited to logistical support or air defense, offers Ukraine a dissuasion that Europe cannot match, especially in terms of nuclear guarantees, seen as “the main objective of deterrent” by Kiev. Although the United Kingdom and France have their own nuclear arsenal, it has not even the size of the American arsenal has been supported by the nuclear triad: the ability to throw missiles of land, air and sea.
“Nuclear guarantees, this is the main objective of dissuasion that Ukraine wants. Those who give safety guarantees commit to leading to the limit. If there is no guarantee that the US participates positively, Russia may think it is an attack,” suggests lieutenant general Marco Serronha.
This capacity for US presence is crucial to Kiev, who still looks remorse for the signing of the Budapest Memorandum, which led to the delivery of its nuclear arsenal in exchange for safety guarantees from various countries, including from the United States. For this reason, Zelensky and his team were prepared for the White House meeting. It was not just the fact: the Ukrainian team was “armed” from a $ 100 billion purchase offer of US armament in exchange for security guarantees, according to one.
This agreement provides for another $ 50 billion agreement for drones production with Ukrainian companies that have perfected this technology since 2022 and allowed Ukraine to wage Moscow’s advances on the ground. Still, the document does not specify which concrete weapons that Ukrainians commit to buying, although they have publicly expressed the intention of buying 10 Patriot anti -aircraft batteries.
Still, experts believe that Peace Negotiations – Donald Trump has rewarded the idea of ceasing initially proposed by themselves again – face unconed goals. “At the limit, Russia wants a subordinate Ukraine, the territory is just an instrument,” explains Marco Serronha, while Ukraine requires Russian withdrawal and guarantees of sovereignty. In a minimalist scenario, Kiev can accept the temporary occupation of territories such as Crimea and Donbass, but only with realistic guarantees. Russia, in turn, insists on limiting the Ukrainian forces, rejecting any western presence.
Kremlin quickly reacted to the US President’s statements, with the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman to reject “Ukraine presence of a military contingent with the participation of NATO countries.” But it is still unaware of whether Donald Trump’s safety guarantee this Monday at the White House was discussed in Alaska with Vladimir Putin. For Lieutenant General Marco Serronha, it can be dangerous for the West to have a security guarantee agreed between the US and Russia.
“Trump is trying to get a half-term kind that gives Russia comfort, but safety guarantees proposed by Americans accepted by Russia are always to be suspicious. The Russians will only accept an agreement they can explore,” says the lieutenant general.
Trump’s opening for American troops on the ground is a watershed but risky. Russia, who sees any western presence as a “direct threat, can respond with climbing, while Europe, relegated to the“ first line of defense, ”faces the challenge of acting clearly about US support. “Guarantees have to be given by NATO. All of this is stuck by wires,” warns Marco Serronha, for whom Peace in Ukraine is a high -risk game and Trump’s promise of peace sounds more like an uncertain bet, which risks crushed between Russian demands, Ukrainian ambitions and a Europe unable to impose.
