It is not exactly a surprise, but there is a reason that leads Russia to accept a direct dialogue with Ukraine as difficult
The White House deal on Monday about the next step – a bilateral meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – looked widely unanimous. Then came the Russian answer.
“The idea was discussed that it would be appropriate to study the opportunity to raise the level of Russian and Ukrainian representatives,” said Kremlin Yury Ushakov advisor, reporting reporters about US President Donald Trump’s call with Putin. The name of any of the leaders was not mentioned, nor any indication that the “representatives” could be elevated at this level.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov adopted a more conciliatory tone in an interview with state television on Tuesday. “We do not refuse any form of work – neither bilateral nor trilateral,” he insisted. But: “Any contacts involving high employees should be prepared with maximum care.”
In Kremlin’s language, that means they are nowhere near to agree with it.
And that should not be surprised.
This is a war that Putin began to unilaterally recognize a piece of Ukrainian land (the self -adhesive Popular Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk) as independent. Putin has claimed that Ukraine is “an inalienable part of history, culture and spiritual space [da Rússia]And that its separation from Russia is a historical error.
Thus, if this meeting is realized – as Loysia Lutsevich, director of the Russian program and Eurasia da Chatham House – Putin, “will” have to accept the failure to sit with a president who considers an anecdote from a country that does not exist. “
It would also be, according to the expert, a huge reversal of tone that would be difficult to explain to the Russian people. “Putin made a brainwashing to the Russians on state television, saying that Zelensky is a Nazi, that Ukraine is a puppet state of the West … that Zelensky is illegitimate, why is he suddenly talking to him?”
Not only does Kremlin regularly question the Legitimacy of the Ukrainian leader, settling in the postponement of elections in Ukraine, illegal under martial law, as in his last memorandum of “peace” requires Ukraine to perform elections before the signing of any final peace treaty. Putin and other Russian employees rarely refer to Zelensky by name, preferring the scathing nickname “Kiev regime”. And you must not forget that it was Zelensky who traveled to Turkey for the first direct conversations between the two parts in mid -May, just for Putin to send a delegation headed by a writer of historical manuals.
Tatiana Stanovaya, senior member of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and founder of R.Politik, who provides news and analysis of Russia, argued that although Putin does not consider a meeting with Zelensky as a critical war that, for Russia, is more about the confrontation with the West than with Ukraine, he could still accept the meeting if he would be successful.
“The main demands have to be on the table and Zelensky has to be willing to talk about it,” he told CNN in an interview on Tuesday. So far, Zelensky has excluded these fundamental requirements, which include the assignment of the territory that Ukraine still controls. But Putin, he argued, sees Trump as the key to changing it.
“Trump is seen as a russian vision facilitator of the agreement, so it is supposed to work with Kiev to press them to be more flexible, to be more open to Russian demands.”
Stanovaya suggested that Russia can try to keep the US by doing what Ushakov suggested and advancing to a new round of conversations in Istanbul, but with a high -level delegation, perhaps including USHAKOV itself and Foreign Minister Lavrov. But he won’t risk an “ambush,” sitting with Zelensky just to see all his rejected demands.
Trump finished his day on Monday by posting on the social Truth that “began preparing a meeting (…) between President Putin and President Zelensky.” When he woke up and called Fox News breakfast on Tuesday morning, he seemed to have noticed that it was not something closed. “I have prepared everything with Putin and Zelensky, and they have to give the orders. We are 11 thousand kilometers,” he said.
At this point, Putin has no reason to give in. Having not made concessions, he was rewarded with a large summit in Alaska, with the abandonment of Trump’s requirement to sign a ceasefire before the peace talks and the collapse of all the usefulness of sanctions to date. Having slightly reduced the scale of Drone Night Attacks to Ukrainian cities in August, Russia again intensified them on Monday night, firing 270 drones and 10 missiles. If Trump’s pressure on Zelensky has not yet produced the results desired by Moscow, there is always the possibility of resorting to military force.
The only question mark for Russia at this time is who Trump will blame when this last peace effort fails.
