President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) leads in all nine simulated second round scenarios for the 2026 elections, according to Genial/Quaest survey released on Thursday (21). The biggest advantage is 16 percentage points, and the smallest, of 8.
The survey was made between August 13 and 17, before the indictment of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP). There were 12,150 people across the country, with a margin of error of two percentage points.
Among the opponents tested, Lula extended his advantage over the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), who in the previous survey appeared in a technical draw with the president.
Next, the second round scenarios:
Lula x Jair Bolsonaro
Lula increased the difference about Bolsonaro, which remains ineligible until 2030, to 12 points. In July, the advantage was six points.
- Lula (PT): 47% (were 43%)
- Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 35% (were 37%)
- Undecided: 3% (4%)
- White/null/will not vote: 15% (were 16%)
Lula x Tarcísio de Freitas
The president opened eight points about Tarcisio, who was once technically tied with him.
Continues after advertising
- Lula (PT): 43% (41%)
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans): 35% (were 37%)
- Undecided: 4% (were 7%)
- White/null/will not vote: 18% (were 15%)
Lula x Michelle Bolsonaro
The former first lady has 34% against 47% of Lula, who has earned four points since July.
- Lula (PT): 47% (were 43%)
- Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 34% (36%)
- Undecided: 3% (5%)
- White/null/will not vote: 16% (stable)
Lula x Ratinho Júnior
The president has ten points advantage over the governor of Paraná.
- Lula (PT): 44% (were 41%)
- Junior Mouse (PSD): 34% (were 36%)
- Undecided: 4% (were 6%)
- White/null/will not vote: 18% (were 17%)
Lula x Eduardo Leite
Lula opened 16 points over the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, expanding a five -point advantage recorded in July.
Continues after advertising
- Lula (PT): 46% (were 41%)
- Eduardo Leite (PSD): 30% (were 36%)
- Undecided: 4% (were 7%)
- White/null/will not vote: 20% (were 16%)
Lula x Eduardo Bolsonaro
The president beats the former president’s son for 15 points, even with slight oscillation in the numbers.
- Lula (PT): 47% (were 43%)
- Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL): 32% (were 33%)
- Undecided: 3% (5%)
- White/null/will not vote: 18% (it was 19%)
Lula x Romeu Zema
The president has 14 points advantage over the governor of Minas Gerais.
- Lula (PT): 46% (were 42%)
- Romeu Zema (New): 32% (were 33%)
- Undecided: 4% (were 7%)
- White/null/will not vote: 18% (stable)
Lula x Ronaldo Caiado
Another scenario with 16 points advantage for Lula, this time about the governor of Goiás.
Continues after advertising
- Lula (PT): 47% (were 42%)
- Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil): 31% (were 33%)
- Undecided: 4% (were 7%)
- White/null/will not vote: 18% (stable)
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro
Simulated for the first time, the senator appears with 32%, 16 points behind Lula.
- Lula (PT): 48%
- Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 32%
- Undecided: 3%
- White/null/won’t vote: 17%
