The president (PT) expanded the front of his opponents and would win all names tested in 2nd round simulations of the 2026 election, according to Genial/Quaest survey released on Thursday (21).
The survey confirms the petista’s trend in recent months. The government has been betting on the discourse of and the Bolsonaro family association of the crisis opened by the tariff of.
Lula appears today with 47% against 35% (). In the July round, the score was 43% to 37%.
The survey was conducted between August 13 and 17, with 12,150 in -person interviews. The margin of error is two percentage points for more or less. The study is funded by the great investment.
Against (Republicans), the petista marks 43% to 35% – in July, they were 41% to 37%. In front of (PL), it has 47% to 34%, compared to 43% to 36% last month.
He would also beat the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (), by 44% to 34% (41% to 36% before), and Rio Grande do Sul, (PSD), 46% to 30% (in the previous round, 41% to 36%).
In the simulation against (PL-SP), Lula has 47% to 32%, while in July, it marked 43% to 33%. Against (new), it wins by 46% to 32% (before, 42% to 33%). Regarding the Governor of Goiás, (), records 47% to 31%, compared to 42% to 33% last month. Against Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), leads by 48% to 32% – the scenario had not been tested in the previous survey.
In the 1st round simulations, Lula has 34% of voting intentions against 28% of Jair Bolsonaro. Ciro Gomes (PDT) appears with 8%, Mouse Junior with 7%, Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema with 3%each. White and null add up to 13%, and 4% say they are undecided.
When the opponent is Michelle, Lula scores 35%, and she, 21%. Ciro has 9%, mouse 8%, Caiado and Zema 4%each. White and nulls reach 14%, and 5% do not know.
Against Tarcísio, the president maintains 35% and the governor of reaches 17%. Ciro appears with 11%, Caiado with 6%and Zema with 4%. In this scenario, 21% opt for whites or nulls, and 6% are undecided.
In the dispute with Eduardo Bolsonaro, Lula has 34%, and the deputy, 15%. Ciro marks 10%, mouse also 10%, falling 5%and zema 4%. White and null add up to 16%, and undecided, 6%.
In the scenario in which he faces Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula records 35% against 14% of the senator. Ciro appears with 10%, mouse with 9%, Caiado with 5%and Zema with 6%. There are 16% whites and nulls and 5% undecided.
In the intention of spontaneous voting, Lula appears with 16% of the mentions, and Bolsonaro, with 9%. Ciro, Michelle, Mouse, Tarcisio and other names mark 1% each. Whites and nulls add up to 4%, and 66% say they are undecided
The research also assessed the assessment of future applications. For 58% of respondents, Lula should not run for reelection in 2026; 39% say yes, and 3% could not answer. Regarding Jair Bolsonaro, ineligible, 65% argue that he gives up and support another name, 26% prefer to maintain the candidacy and 9% did not respond.
In the event that Bolsonaro does not compete, Michelle among those who declare themselves with 36%. She is followed by Tarcisio, with 15%, Eduardo Bolsonaro, with 10%, Ratinho and Flávio, with 8%, Marçal (6%), Caiado (3%) and Zema (2%). They did not answer 7%, and 5% believe none of them should replace Bolsonaro. The margin of error for Bolsonarists is 6 percentage points.
The survey also captured perceptions of fear regarding the return of political leaders. For 47% of respondents, Bolsonaro is afraid to return to the presidency. Already 39% say fear a new term of Lula. Another 8% said they were afraid of the two, 4% could not answer and 2% are not afraid of either.
The research measured rejection and propensity to the vote. In May, 57% said they met Lula and not vote for him, 3% claimed not to know him, and 40% said they would vote. In that same period, Jair Bolsonaro registered 55% rejection, 6% of ignorance and 39% of voting propensity. For Eduardo Bolsonaro, the percentages were 56%, 21%and 23%, respectively.
Now in August, Lula has 51% rejection, 2% of ignorance and 47% of voting propensity. Jair Bolsonaro appears with 57% rejection, 6% of ignorance and 37% of propensity. Eduardo Bolsonaro has 57% rejection, 19% of ignorance and 24% of propensity.
