Drone attacks The oil refineries led Moscow to ban exports
Gasoline has never been so expensive in Russia. Ukraine attacks made prices reach historical maximums for the second consecutive day after exceeding the September 2023 record. Fuel is now missing in several regions.
Exports of gasoline were suspended by Moscow last week to preserve the refined product to the domestic market. These market disturbances show that although Russia claims to have an advantage on the battlefield and continue to fund the invasion, it faces economic impacts in the country.
Ukraine attacked at least four major oil refineries in Russia since early July, according to Kiev. Although attacks are not unpublished, they have become more frequent in recent months.
“In 2024, the attacks were numerous but scattered, usually limited to one refinery at a time, and the damage was generally repaired quickly,” said Sergey Vakulenko, a senior researcher at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace quoted by.
The current offensive, added Vakulenko, encompasses all refineries in a key region of consumption and refinement, and may leave them out of operation for a long time or “even permanently.”
The most common gasoline price in Russia (A95 or Euro 95) reached 82,300 rubles per ton in the São Petersburg stock market this Wednesday, an increase of 55% since the beginning of the year and 8% since early August.
Sergei Kaufman, an analyst at Russian broker FINAM, estimated that at least 10% of Russia’s refinement capacity has been affected. The Russian oil industry is one of the main targets of Ukrainian long -range attacks, confirmed in early August Vasyl Malyuk, head of the Ukraine Security Service (SBU).
Ukrainian attacks on railway infrastructure in downtown Russia have caused frequent delays in rail services – something unpublished for decades – and interrupted fuel -carrying goods, which further complicated the situation.
Disturbances in rail and air transport caused by attacks also led more people to resort to the car, further increasing demand.
To control prices, Russian authorities prohibited all gasoline exports on July 28. The measure has increased shipping to the domestic market in 150,000 tons this month, but failed to wage pricing, according to David Martirosyan, Russian pricing analyst, linked to Gazprombank. “This points to a partial deficit of supply in the domestic market,” he added.
“Even with the ban on exports in force, internal demand is not being fully satisfied,” said Kaufman of FINAM. “And the absence of public reserves data increases anxiety in the market.”
Russian authorities prohibited the release of these data in May last year, due to Ukrainian attacks, claiming the need to avoid “market manipulation in the face of the geopolitical situation.”
Even without access to official data, the Russians feel that the fuel situation is getting worse. Although consumer prices have risen more slowly than thick prices – thanks to state financial support to domestic oil companies and a tacit prohibition of accentuated increases – increases remain significant.
Some posts in the region are rating fuel through coupons delivered to organizations, according to local press – a practice that makes many Russians remember the late Soviet era.
Crimea, annexed by Russia, also sold out this type of gasoline. Sergei Aksyonov, chief of Crimea appointed by Moscow, attributed the problems to “a reduction in production volumes and logistics difficulties” in his channel of Telegram.
Consumer gasoline prices in Russia rose 9% last year and more than 5% since January, surpassing average inflation. The increases and supply failures vary according to the regions and the gas stations, the most affected zones being the most affected.
Analysts believe prices will continue to rise at least until September and that the flaws persist in difficult regions. Still, a widespread national scarcity is not foreseen, as seasonal summer demand will decrease and part of the damaged refineries can be restored.
Ukraine seems to have other plans. “More will come,” said the Ukrainian staff in a note that confirms the latest attack on the Syzran Refinery in the Samara region of the center of Russia on 15 August.
However, a systemic crisis is still far away, as heavy vehicles and military equipment work in diesel, which is not missing. “A total fuel supply crisis – which affects the army, transport and agriculture and that can shake the economy – is still distant,” Vakulenko concluded.
