Since the Israel government launched its military campaign on the Gaza Strip, in response to the brutal attacks of Hamas of October 7, 2023, the number of Palestinians killed already exceeds 62,000, according to the last balance of the Gazatí Ministry of Health. In all this time, the Palestinian enclave has besides and bombarded, ending the health infrastructure and basic light and water services to a population that lives in the UN. Only at the beginning of the year ,.
And all these figures threaten to continue growing before the last decisions the executive that Netanyahu Likud shares in coalition with the ultra -nationalists. A series of measures that not only suppose a before and after in the way of proceeding with Israel, but also symbolize the transfer of red lines of international law that had not previously been questioned.
On the same day, the Ministry of Defense – in charge of the previous head of the Netanyahu diplomacy – and the Ministry of Finance – in the hands of the ultra -incarnate wing in the bezalel Smotrich settler – activated two plans that make deaf ears of the warnings of much of the international community and make up a real torpedo to the ‘solution of the two states’. That is, to any aspiration that a future Palestinian state is constituted with connection between Gaza and the West Bank.
It is about, to seize by the force of Ciudad de Gaza, eradicate the forces of Hamas and subsequently deliver it to an unarmed authority that undertakes not to attack Israel and be independent of the National Palestinian authority (ANP). It is also the same operation that will have “catastrophic consequences”, forcing the eviction of a million refugees who live overcrowded and among the ruins, which will result “in, destruction without meaning and atrocious crimes.” And it is also the same campaign to which the Israeli army itself opposed, warning that it puts at risk the life of the hostages that follow in the strip.
But it is also the defrosting, after 20 years without daring to take such a step, of 3,400 homes in the area ‘E1’ that have an objective beyond the expansion itself. They seek – recognized – to create a barrier that isolates the great cities of the occupied West Bank, Ramala and Belén, of which it is the capital of Palestine for those countries that do recognize the Palestinian state. What has changed now for the Netanyahu government to be stepping on the accelerator of the most extremist claims? These are the main factors that come into play.
Tanks at the doors of Ciudad de Gaza: negotiators at the table
While Israel has been putting obstacles and hindering reaching another high agreement to the fire or new hostages and release of Palestinian prisoners, the situation has turned a turn in the last 48 hours. Boardly connects with the context in which the green light was given to the city of Gaza, just after Hamas accepted the proposal of truce of the Catarí and Egyptian mediation. Without a response to this, Israel dawned with the news that 60,000 more reservists would be called to the next weeks to take the Gazatí city and that that required that another 70,000 reservists could not return to their homes yet.
But everything changed after the last rubric in the Prime Minister’s cabinet. In the official announcement of the operation, for the release of all our hostages and for the end of the war in acceptable terms for Israel. “With the passing of the hours, the scenario accumulated more contradictions. To the demands of health personnel and humanitarian organizations present in the strip that they began the evacuation of a million refugees, another demand that incorporated the negotiation was added.
With the tanks at the door of Ciudad de Gaza, the Israel Ministry of Defense claimed Hamas to reach an agreement, under the threat of destroying this urban area: “Soon the doors of hell will open.” It should be noted that this request included that the agreement is under the conditions of Israel, with the release of all hostages, the disarmament of Hamas, but also the Israeli control of the entire perimeter of the strip and the veto to the ANP -the Palestinian government to which the international community recognizes.
The previous proposal that the armed group had accepted included an exchange of 10 hostages for 150 prisoners – renouncing those in life imprisonment – and the delivery of all the bodies of the deceased in exchange for 60 days of truce, more humanitarian aid and also yielding in the size of the damping zone. Both assignments responded to clash points with Israel in the anterior round of negotiations.
On the other hand, there has been an obvious acceleration of the plans of a great magnitude military operation and that the Army approved warning of the risks that it entails for both troops and kidnapped. Last Wednesday, the same day Hamas warned that Israel was only hindering the negotiation, Netanyahu gave order to shorten the deadlines for the invasion of Gaza City. On the previous day it was Catar who asked for a “fast and positive” response to the proposal. Instead of this, other messages arrived, but for the Israeli population :.
September, or the end of the term to activate international pressure (with permission from the national)
Despite an US that has vetoed all the proposals of high fire in the United Nations Security Council -or has voted against the Assembly -, and it is the main armament supplier to Tel Aviv; The truth is that something has changed in the field of the international community and in the pressure that some states are willing to exert. In fact, all this acceleration of the plans to take the big city of the strip occurs under the context of some calendar leaves that approach a September marked in red.
The international community has been responding unevenly in terms of convictions, reproaches and criticism of Israel for the volume of fatal victims in Gaza and the painful conditions to which the population is subjected. For example, while the political messages that are sent from the European Union are formulated in a blunt tone, highlights and effective to force the end of Gaza’s invasion. He arrived in Julio without achieving what is a minimum consideration for some twenty -seven countries, the review of the EU Association Agreement with Israel.
But there is an old ghost to which Israel fears and has not stopped flying since there was a waterfall of ads that had already threatened to unleash a year earlier, when. Until adding the figure of 147. and not any type of recognition, but the one that defends that the territory of Palestine must be connected between Gaza and the West Bank and whose capital is in East Jerusalem. With that backdrop, a group of historically allied countries and aligned with Israel prepares to do the same throughout the month of September :.
The three are countries with a seat in the G7, two in the Security Council, and, in the Gallic case, a member with weight in the Union. And all of them have the potential to contribute to a domino effect that drags other Western powers to do the same. However, each case is particular and different. Macron took the lead and announced that there would be recognition in a context of pressure to the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy. It worked in London, where the premier Keir Starmer transformed him into a kind of threat, establishing the possibility that Israel avoids that recognition: “Unless the Israeli government takes substantial measures to end the terrible situation in Gaza, it agrees a high fire and commits itself to a long -term sustainable peace, reviving the perspective of a ‘solution of two states’.”
Canada joined, but marking its own profile, since it reached a series of agreements with the ANP that pass through a reform of the Palestinian government, general elections in 2026 without Hamas and renounce a militarized state. But what has really made the alarms of Israeli diplomacy jump was the sudden message that came from Berlin. Germany would not take the passage of recognition to which it has always resisted, but it would press on the other hand. One of which Israel depends especially. Federal Chancellor, conservative Friedrich Merz, announced the same decision he had asked in Congress and cornered his predecessor, the social democrat Olaf Scholz, in the past.
Upon being used in Gaza, citing the operation directly to take the city of Gaza. And Germany is the second country in matters of arms export. Berlin needed not to stay out of international diplomacy, but without taking the step in a recognition that causes special controversy in the country’s domestic policy that saw how six million people were murdered, a large majority for the mere fact of being Jews.
There is one more factor that adds this list of pressures that play against the Israeli Prime Minister and the Ultras. He has always been present, but after revealing that Netanyahu planned to enter with everything in Gaza City, he has reactivated more strongly. Last Sunday, Israeli civil society and different groups consumed one. They claimed to Netanyahu to buried the plans of the operation and reach a pact with Hamas in which the hostages are released and the definitive truce is achieved.
So what does Netanyahu play?
In that line, Netanyahu has been making political juggling for years to be able to maintain the executive that has suffered several outputs and incorporations and on which they even planned different motions of censorship, in and in, by staggering momentaryly the support of two ultra orthodox formations, with which they maintain a conflict al. The fact of having the helmet and the rifle with the other 60,000 reservists predicts more protests and resistance in the street.
In short, the Government and Netanyahu’s plans occur in a scenario in which he knows that next month he will have to face an unprecedented diplomatic support of the ‘solution of the two states’, which could only cushion without setting one foot in Gaza City. With part of the citizenship and associations of family members and relatives of the hostages at the foot of the banner, but also with an US, its greatest ally, which has mutating its speech with respect to Gaza.
Of that proposal presented with a video made by artificial intelligence, in which he was committed to expelling all the gazaties of the strip to turn it into; Trump has been mutating his speech in recent months, leaving reproaches and separating himself from Israel against episodes that outraged part of American public opinion, as is the case with the distribution of humanitarian aid. Distribution in which they came to participate through the disastrous management of the Humanitarian Foundation for Gaza -American but also Israelí. Until mid June they had counted. That same hungry population is what has now been called to leave Gaza City.
