Furious to the report on the state of employment in July, which signaled a significant slowdown in the economy, US President Donald Trump remembered one of his most persistent resentments: the statistics professional responsible for tabulation of monthly numbers that had been named by former President Joe Biden.
Unlike the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, about whom Trump has been criticizing for months, the US President has the authority to dismiss the chief of staff of labor statistics. Therefore, in early August, he did ISS – an unprecedented decision that triggered the latest controversy in the White House and a chain reaction about the introduction of politics into government economic data.
“I was thinking about it this morning, before the numbers came out,” Trump told the journalist. “I thought, ‘Who is the person who makes these numbers?'”
This person, which Trump suddenly made public from the public by saying goodbye to him, is Erika McTentfer.
While some of the president’s economic counselors sought to present explanations to the deceptive report of July jobs-and for the low-June numbers revisions, which indicated a slowdown in hiring-it was an argument by Sergio Gor, head of presidential personnel and mainly responsible for the loyalty to Trump, who, according to the advisers, resonated with the North American President: Erika McNTAFER was named by BIDEN.
Sources familiar with the decision to rule out McTefer said that the president had already mentioned it earlier, criticizing the fact that the person at the head of the agency that compiles so crucial economic data was named by its predecessor.
That alone irritated Trump, these sources said. But until Friday, he didn’t believe he had a reason to fire her.
This changed after the job report was known when Trump reported some of his main counselors that he wanted to say goodbye Mcentafer. Two White House employees said that as much as they knew, no one opposed that decision.
“I said goodbye,” Trump told reporters. “And do you know what more? I did the right thing.”
Ultimate attempt to discredit the facts
With this, a new conspiracy theory was born in the White House, when the president stated, without proof, that McTentfer had “manipulated” the monthly job report.
McNTAFER, who did not answer CNN questions, spent decades as a statistical professional at the service of the government, working in the census office and various departments of public administration, surveying and studying work and economic data. However, in a speech given in January at the Atlanta Economic Club, he spoke about the importance of producing economic data in a timely manner.
“I have been interested in economic measurement for a long time,” said Erika McTaFerfer at the time. “But, like all who have lived the last five years, I’ve developed a deeper appreciation for the importance of timeless economic data.”
His resignation was Trump’s latest example to discredit facts that contradicted his political narrative, or to ward off those responsible for compiling them. Almost forgotten in the midst of the controversy was the discussion about the true state of the US labor market, which now issues warning signs due to the uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs.
Trump’s decision to say goodbye Erika McNTAFER generated immediate conviction by economists from all currents, who used descriptions such as “harmful”, “authoritarian” and “Republic of Bananas” to classify the measure.
“I don’t know if there is any basis for this dismissal,” said William Beach, appointed by Trump during his first term to lead the Office of Labor Statistics (gel). “And that seriously harms the statistical system. Undermine the credibility of the cabinet is very serious.”
According to responsible, the appearance of the most annoyed report Trump was the major reviews at the low of previous months, which the US president publicly claimed-without proof-having political motivations.
“That’s what made him explode,” an employee of the White House told CNN, adding, “He saw the revisions and realized that something was wrong so that the numbers were so drastically changed. And this is not something that happens for the first time. Given so many companies make decisions based on these numbers, it’s a problem that needed to be resolved.”
Far from being a sign of political fraud, however, revisions are a normal part of the monthly job report. A low response rate for inquiries may make it difficult to initially estimate, so the gel continues to collect payment sheet data as it is reported and reviews the data comply.
Why McNTAFER was different from Powell
Earlier this year, Trump had a similar conversation with his closest employees about the possibility of saying goodbye Powell. These counselors warned him against this decision, telling him that such an action was not only legally questionable but he had more vast implications for the economy, given the role of Powell as independent of the executive branch.
But many of these same employees argued to Trump that McTaFerfer’s dismissal, which serves the president’s Bel-Prazer, was a justifiable measure, although the gel was considered an impartial agency.
Erika McNTEFER, US Statistics Office Commissioner. US/Reuters Statistics Office
High White House representatives, sent to televisions to defend the dismissal, gave various explanations, none of which Trump’s claim that the employment numbers were “manipulated” or “invented” to make him misplaced.
Trump stated, however, that it would only be a matter of days to appoint a new commissioner to direct the agency, which referred to as “statistical.” What was not said was how, precisely, the appointed by Trump would remedy the various problems that the president’s team sees in the way the agency collects and compiles employment numbers.
Traditionally, the agency’s leaders have been selected economists from other public positions, reflection groups or universities. None of them were a known name, either before their appointment or during his mandate.
White House representatives also said that Trump was looking for a “highly qualified” individual to assume control and “modernize” the methods of the cabinet, but whoever arises as Trump will undoubtedly face scrutiny during his Senate confirmation process, where even some Republicans questioned Trump’s abrupt attitude to dismiss the commissioner.
One of the White House employees said Trump, until Monday, had not yet made a decision on the replacement of Erika McTefer. The president’s main counselors, including the chief of staff Susie Wiles and the leaders of his economic team – including the director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett, the Scott Bessent Treasury Secretary and the Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, among others – will play an important role in the next commissioner’s decision, the official said.
William Beach, in CNN’s “State of the Union”, said that anyone who replaces McTentfer will have difficulty gaining credibility, although Trump’s stated goal is to restore confidence in numbers.
“Suppose a new commissioner is named and that this person, man or woman, is the best person possible, right? And he/she provides a number that is not positive. Well, everyone will think that it is not as bad as it is likely because they will suspect political influence,” he said. “Therefore, this is harmful. This is not what we need to have.”
The US president’s decision does not seem to have generated widespread internal criticism among his counselors, although external economists of both parties have criticized the measure and warned that it be able to undermine confidence in critical economic numbers.
“My job is to support the president on this issue, and I support him. We have to guarantee the American people that we can trust in these data. They are influential, change the markets, change investments,” said Secretary of State for Labor, Lori Chaveiramer, in an interview with Fox Business in early August.
A few hours before Trump announced that he was going to dismiss McTefer, Chavez-Deremer said the employment report “provides more evidence that the American people are seeing true progress.”
Other members of the US President’s economic team have supported their decision. Many were quick to relate problems to Powell’s employment numbers to maintain stable interest rates – for Trump’s persistent irritation – suggesting that Fed’s political decision makers were not receiving accurate information to make their decisions.
In several interviews, Hassett stated that partisanship had infiltrated employment reports without providing any evidence that supported the statement. In an appearance at Fox News, he said that “data cannot be advertising,” although it has not provided any details that could prove the way McTaFerfer or hundreds of agency statistics professionals could have manipulated the numbers.
Hassett also suggested at CNBC that the workstorm of work statistics was just another focus of trumping opposition to Trump. “Throughout the US government, there are people who have resisted Trump in every place they can,” he said.
Like most Trump administration officials, Hassett spent the first Friday of most of this year to praise monthly employment reports, noting that the constant hiring rate was indicative of a strong economy. Trump himself often published job reports when they revealed six -digit gains, never questioning numbers when they seemed to show a robust job market.
“Large employment numbers, the stock market on the rise! At the same time, billions of dollars from tariffs !!!” Trump published in June, regarding the report of this month of the gel.
It was only after the terrible July report that he decided to order McNTAFER’s dismissal.
“This is a problem”
The immediate furor of the decision to dismiss it has decreased a little during the weekend, although several members of Congress expressed their concern before leaving Washington for the August holidays.
“If the president is saying goodbye, it is because the numbers are not reliable, it would be good to know that,” said Senator Cynthia Lumis, the Wyoming Republican. “But if the president is saying goodbye because he doesn’t like the numbers – but they are exact – then that’s a problem.”
People looking for employment talk to representatives of the public schools of Orange County who seek to fill vacancies during a job fair at Orange County Fairs, on Thursday, July 10, in Orlando, Florida. Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP
Economists and statistics professionals advocated Erika McTefer, stating that their dismissal would create worrying distrust about critical economic data. In his January speech in Atlanta, McNTAFER recognized the growing challenges in the preparation of the monthly report on employment, as the rate of response to employers and workers’ inquiries is no longer as robust as it is in the past.
“Our gel goal is to modernize official statistics for the 21st century,” said McTentfer, “and try to put them on a sustainable path for the future.”
Six months later, he was failed.
