Donald Trump government has been aggressively increasing tensions with Venezuela and President Nicolás Maduro, creating conditions that can lead to a military confrontation.
A large displacement of US naval forces is underway outside Venezuelan waters, while the White House intensifies belligerent rhetoric against drug cartels and Rotula Maduro as leader of a “terrorist cartel.” This raises the question: The ultimate goal is just to intercept smuggling boats or start a possible war for regime war?
Last month, Trump signed a secret guideline by instructing the Pentagon to use military force against Latin American cartels that his administration classified as “terrorist organizations.” At the same time, the government stated that a Venezuelan criminal group was a terrorist cartel led by Maduro, and reiterated that his government was illegitimate.
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Since then, the Pentagon has been ships of war to the South Caribbean. In response, Maduro announced on Monday the sending of 4.5 million militia to defend “our seas, our heavens and our lands” against any foray.
The Trump administration said little about its intentions. Asked on Tuesday about the movement and if there were plans to put troops on Venezuelan soil, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt replied calling Maduro illegitimate and noting that he was indicted for drug trafficking in the US.
“The president is prepared to use all the elements of American power to prevent drugs from flooding our country and to take those responsible to justice. Maduro’s regime is not the legitimate government of Venezuela. It is a narco-terrorist cartel,” Leavitt said.
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The Pentagon avoided giving details, but said the cartels “spread historical violence across the hemisphere and flooded the US with lethal drugs, violent criminals and brutal gangs.”
Military Mobilization
Officers said they are even on their way to the region, besides, and the 22nd Expeditionary Unit of Marines, with 2,200 soldiers. P-8 and a submarine surveillance planes are also being displaced.
The destroyers are from the Arleigh Burke class, equipped with over 90 missiles, capable of overthrowing aircraft, submarines and even ballistic missiles.
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Using them against drug cartels would be like “bringing an obus to a knife fight,” said a defense officer.
Historically, the US Navy already intercepts suspicious vessels in international waters, but always under the temporary command of the coastal guard to give legal backing. Trump’s mobilized force size and order suggest that Washington considers actions far beyond simple maritime police operations.
Contradictory objectives
Despite the tone of confrontation, experts say Trump’s goals about Venezuela are contradictory. On the one hand, he wants to use strength against cartels and take a ripe out of power. On the other hand, it needs Caracas cooperation to receive back Venezuelan migrants deported from the US.
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“If the US seeks a pretext for starting a war, it is not self-defense,” said Brian Finucane, former lawyer from the War Laws Department.
Trump has already summoned Alien Enemies Act this year, a law of the 1812 War era rarely used since World War II, to justify summary deportations of members of the Aragua Tren cartel for maximum security in El Salvador. Justice blocked the measure.
US intelligence agencies, however, do not believe that the Mature government directly controls the Aragua Tren, contrary to White House allegations.
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Climbing risk
The legal issue is whether the government will apply war rules – which allow you to kill enemies even without immediate threat – or will only make police operations more power.
Analysts also warn of dilemmas similar to those of air strikes against terrorists: How to define if a target has enough bond with a cartel? How accurate should the military be before shooting? And how to avoid civil deaths?
For now, the fate of this operation is still wrapped in confidentiality within the government itself. But the accumulation of troops indicates that Trump may be taking the US on the brink of direct confrontation with Venezuela.
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