Lula ties with Bolsonaro, Michelle and Tarcisio in the 2nd round

Paraná’s national survey shows that if the presidential election were now, the president (PT) would face a fierce scenario to win a 4th term. The current holder of the Planalto Palace is in a technical draw with 2 potential candidates-(PL) and (Republicans)-and with (PL), but continues to perform as a pre-candidate.

The only scenario in which the petista appears as the winner is against the Senate opposition leader (PL-RN). Lula records 42.9% of voting intentions. Marine gets 37.8%.

The senator by Rio Grande do Norte is presented to respondents as having “The support of former President Jair Bolsonaro” -What is a real possibility. The difference in Lula and Marine, as noted, is 5.1 percentage points. It is above the error margin of 2.2 percentage points, more or less.

This is the scenario that Lula would face for reelection:

The survey was conducted by Paraná Research from August 17 to 21, 2025. 2,020 people were interviewed 16 years or older in 26 states and in the Federal District. The error margin is 2 percentage points, more or less. The confidence interval is 95%.

Lula x Jair Bolsonaro

Bolsonaro is until 2030 for abuse of political power, according to the determination of the (Superior Electoral Court). Nevertheless, his speech is still that he will be a candidate and is well placed in the voting intention.

In the survey of Paraná Research, the former president is numerically ahead of Lula, but tied technically on the margin of error. The petista has 41.5% against 44.4% of Bolsonaro – the difference between both is 2.9 points.

Lula could, according to Paraná research, from 39.3% to 43.7%. Bolsonaro would today have 42.2% to 46.6%.

The percentages indicate that today the presidential election would be such a fierce dispute as it was in the 2022 dispute – when the petista for 50.90% against 49.10% of the valid votes in the 2nd round.

Here’s the percentages:

• Lula (PT) – 41,5%;
• Jair Bolsonaro (PL) – 44,4%;
• white/null – 8,8%;
• They don’t know – 5,4%.

Lula x Michelle Bolsonaro

In the confrontation with the former first lady, if she is chosen to replace her husband, there is also a draw within the margin of error (Lula 43.4% x 42.3% of Michelle). She is currently that of PL Mulher and has support in the right and evangelical female.

Here’s the percentages:

• Lula (PT) – 43,4%;
• Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) – 42,3%;
• white/null – 8,7%;
• They don’t know – 5,6%.

Lula x Tarcísio de Freitas

The governor of São Paulo avoids talking about a possible to the Plateau. He says he expects a decision from the former president. In Paraná’s national survey, there is a draw with identical percentages between Lula and Tarcisio: 41.9% x 41.9%.

This is a result that had a variation for worse, within the margin of error, for the governor of São Paulo compared to the previous study of Paraná Research ,. In this past survey, in a 2nd round simulation, Tarcísio scored 43.6% against 40.1% of Lula. There was also a technical draw on the margin of error, but the governor of the Paulistas was numerically ahead.

In recent weeks, Tarcisio has been a frequent target of PT criticism, Lula’s ministers and even from the right. The governor was contested because of the way he has acted after the United States announced a 50% tariff over Brazilian products.

For the petistas, Tarcisio was and is being conniving with the attitude of members of the Bolsonaro family who encouraged the increase in taxes that came from the White House. For federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), the governor is acting in a disguised way because he would only be thinking of being the candidate for president in place of Jair Bolsonaro in 2026.

In fact, there are 2 lighter scenarios today for Tarcisio: to seek reelection for Sao Paulo (a more within reach, such as) or trying luck in the presidential claim. In the 2nd case, it appears tied with the margin of error.

Here’s the percentages:

• Lula (PT) – 41,9%;
• Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) – 41.9%;
• white/null – 10,4%;
• They don’t know – 5,7%.

Tarcisio has told allies that he competes in the Plateau depends not only on Bolsonaro’s support, but also on objective conditions of the economy and how they will behave from now on right-wing and center-right parties in Congress. The governor of São Paulo thinks that these subtitles have been condescending to the policies presented by the Planalto Palace and this facilitates Lula’s reelection.

To stay in an example always cited by Tarcisio, Congress will soon approve Lula’s project that exempts income tax who earns up to $ 5,000 per month. About 10 million people with this measure will be directly benefited, which was a campaign promise of the petista. The bill was placed to be processed in the House in, with the help of several opposition parties.

If the Planalto is played in 2026, the governor would also have a problem to solve in Sao Paulo. Several candidates from the right and center-right field vie for the place to run for the Bandeirantes Palace. For example, the national president of the PSD and secretary of government and institutional relations of the State of São Paulo, Gilberto Kassab, and the mayor of São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB).

Tarcísio would prefer Nunes as his successor, for 3 reasons: 1) It was close to the mayor of São Paulo in the municipal election of 2024 and was created a great relationship of trust between them; 2) He thinks that he would bring the MDB to the coalition of his candidacy for president (taking the subtitle closely from Lula); 3) Do not consider Kassab as a name capable of having votes to be elected governor.

Lula x Rogério Marinho

The choice of would be a form for Bolsonaro to maintain its influence without bumping into barriers such as party differences – in the case of Tarcisio – or family issues – in Michelle’s case. Asked in April 2025 about how the former president’s candidacy, the senator: “I defend his name until he decides what he wants to do, until the possibilities are exhausted.”

Marinho was elected senator in 2022. He is another 5 and a half years of office. You can run for president without fear of running out of mandate in case of defeat. As it is affiliated with the PL, it could compete with Bolsonaro’s explicit support and thus help the subtitle to make a big deputies and senators – always important to have a presidential candidate robustly to help state disputes for Congress.

Here’s the percentages:

• Lula (PT) – 42,9%;
• Rogério Marinho (PL) – 37,8%;
• white/null – 13,0%;
• They don’t know – 6,3%.

1st round scenarios

According to a survey by Paraná research, it would advance it in all scenarios stimulated in relation to (June 2025), but always with variations near the margin of error. The great front that the Planalto expected to Lula did not come in 1st round or 2nd round scenarios,

The petista was tested in clashes against (PDT), the governor of Paraná, (PSD), the governor of Goiás, (União Brasil) and the Minister of Transport, (MDB), in addition to those already mentioned –Bolsonaro, Michelle, Tarcísio de Freitas and Rogério Marinho.

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