Governor of São Paulo intensified agenda in the federal capital and said that it is necessary to discuss a ‘project for Brazil’; In addition to the electoral scenario, Focus Bulletin and US data contributed to the fall of the dollar
The financial market has again shown enthusiasm with the possible candidacy of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), to the presidency of the Republic in 2026. The American currency ended Monday’s 0.20%trading session, quoted to R $ 5.41, in a movement that an analysts attribute to a combination of external and internal factors-among them, the signs of Tarcisio that Tarcisio can be signs. dispute the Planalto Palace. During the Barretos Peão Party (SP) and an event in the state capital, the governor stated that it is necessary to discuss a “project for Brazil” and that the first challenge is the fiscal issue. The speech was interpreted by economists as a nod to the market, which for months charges greater rigor in public accounts.
Managers and analysts evaluate that a possible opposition victory in 2026 could mean a change of course in fiscal policy from 2027, reducing risk awards embedded in the exchange rate. In addition to the political factor, the appreciation of commodities, the expectation of interest cutting in the United States and the 13th consecutive reduction of inflation projections in the Focus Bulletin contributed to the good mood of investors. The report released by the Central Bank brought a drop in IPCA estimates to 2025 and 2026 and, for the first time in the year, to 2027, reinforcing the perception of greater control over inflation.
The positive environment was also reflected in the Stock Exchange (B3), which closed practically stable, in a slight increase of 0.04%, at 138,025 points. Investors highlighted the force of actions related to consumption and energy, while Petrobras and Vale helped to support the index. Tarcisio’s approach to Brasilia, amid electoral speculation, has reinforced the reading that he can become the preferential candidate of the so -called “market”. In recent weeks, the governor has intensified his presence in the federal capital, has participated in party events and meetings with leaders of Centrão.
In parallel, heavyweight entrepreneurs, such as André Esteves, from BTG Pactual, have been shown to be enthusiasts of their candidacy. According to Istoé magazine, in a recent conversation with international investors, Esteves stated that Tarcisio “will be elected for sure” in 2026 and would be “the only way out” in the face of the possibility of a new term of Lula. BTG says it wants the position of the bank and apolitic and stressed that it made significant investments in Brazil.
