After the political crisis of 2024, when President Emmanuel Macron, France returns to the edge of the abyss with the announcement of the prime minister, François Bayrou, who could make his own government fall.
Bayrou yesterday justified his risky maneuver to achieve the endorsement of the French Parliament to his austerity plan that provides for a saving of 44,000 million euros in 2026 and, incidentally, anticipating the effects of the first major social mobilization against that plan, scheduled for September 10.
“If it has a majority, the government is confirmed. If you don’t have it, the government falls,” the prime minister summarized laconically, who in his barely nine months in office has registered low popular rates.
This scenario, probable considering that the centrist and conservatives who support the prime minister lack an absolute majority, has been consolidated since the ultra-right of Marine Le Pen and (LFI) of Jean-Luc Mélenchon have advanced that they will vote in the National Assembly against Bayrou’s confidence.
What happens is that with his announcement the French government has remained on the tightrope. A full -rule ordinance is popular with context: exactly two days before the expected vote, France will be paralyzed in a protest day known as “confinement” due to.
Prime Minister Bayrou spoke with the press this Monday afternoon, focusing especially on budgetary issues. It was he who announced the call in the assembly to decide if his cabinet has the confidence of Parliament to undertake those that, they say, are essential for the future of the neighboring country.
He talked about a “worrying and decisive moment” for France, in a speech that lasted almost 40 minutes. The state of the debt, the vote of trust and a Europe too “divided” were the key points of their statements, in addition. This Catholic centrist, who took over (defenestrated in December by the union of the left and the ultra -right), aspires to achieve that vote of confidence in the National Assembly and does not know how to face it: if as the gesture of a Kamikaze that gives everything for lost or that of a man with hopes and some trick to discover.
Trust or censorship?
The vote of trust exposes the current government – second from the legislative elections of July 2024, Macron reaction to try to stop the ultras from – to a vote of censorship, in practice. But Bayrou is a good betting, they say in his team, he knows negotiations, pressures and pacts, concessions and counterparts. That is what he clings. In fact, the France 24 channel has reported that all summer has passed in Paris preparing the stage now announced. His future is played and that of the French, who are close to attending the International Monetary Fund (IMF) if the public debt continues to increase.
“I have requested the President of the Republic, and he has agreed, to convene an extraordinary session of Parliament within two weeks. That day I will address the responsibility of the Government with a general political declaration, in accordance with article 49-1 of our Constitution,” said Prime Minister, explaining his step. “Each one will assume their responsibilities, the government will assume theirs,” Bayrou said. “Parliament will have the decision in their hands on September 8. Everyone will commit to the French people, and that is where democracy takes full sense.”
A meeting with President Emmanuel Macron in El Fuerte de Bregançon, where he continues his vacation on the Costa Azul, defined this movement, says the same medium.
The context
Bayrou, in the speech in which he launched his only announcement of the day, first addressed the international situation and its consequences on a continental and national scale, as if that backdrop also explained what he wants to do. “The great empires have decided to impose their law by force,” said Prime Minister, citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, conflicts in and the commercial war with the United States, “imposed” by. In this context, Europe is “too frequently divided,” he regretted, adding that each of his countries tries to “first seek their own advantages.”
He said that “France is in a dangerous paradox, incredibly endowed in everything that is at the top of the pyramid of human achievements”, citing “science”, “mathematics”, “cars” and “luxury.” “However, we are outdated in everything at the base of the pyramid: consumption,” he continued, describing his nation as a country “at the forefront at the same time, lagged.” He wants the endorsement of his allies and not allies, if possible, to achieve that impulse he thinks he needs.
“An imminent danger looms over France. Our country is in danger because we are on the verge of excessive indebtedness,” he said seriously. And that danger is the. According to the Prime Minister, “every hour of every day and every night, the debt has increased by 12 million euros,” in the last 20 years. Bayrou then cited the crises that the country has experienced, such as “the war in”, “inflation” and “that unleashed by Trump”. “The debt dependence has become chronic,” he lamented. He explained that this money was used “for current expenses” and not for investment.
“The debt load will become the largest budget in the country this year,” he continued. It will represent more than the combined budgets of National Education, Higher Education, Housing, Defense and Justice. For the Prime Minister, the amount of the debt this year is 66,000 million euros, 75,000 million next year and 107,000 million in 2029.
“20% of France’s progress is reflected in the burden of debt every year,” he said, qualifying it once again as a “threat.” “There is no way out if we do not recognize the seriousness and inevitability of this risk,” he said. “As far as possible, I will not allow our country to sink at this risk,” he concluded.
The objective is to initiate a path to reduce the public deficit, which has run out in recent years and reached 5.8 % of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024. of 5.4 % planned for this 2025, the government is confident that with the proposed measures decrease to 4.6 % of GDP in 2026, in a path that would allow to reach 2029 with a deficit of 2.8 %, below 3 %, below 3 % Bumper established in the Stability and Growth Pact of the European Union (EU).
Even holidays
François Bayrou has proposed to eliminate two holidays to save, but most French oppose. The prime minister regretted in his speech that the “measures” announced, such as the elimination of these breaks were found in the center of the discussions, when it was “the general plan” which should be discussed. And when it is a “debatable and modifiable” proposal. It doesn’t matter its flexibility, it has touched a sensitive fiber in citizens who already believe that they are very required to endure the country’s finances, starting with reforms such as those of the.
“Discussing only measures is to ignore the need for the General Plan, which is expected to generate savings of 43.8 billion euros by 2026,” he argued. To justify his approach, he reiterated that all the provisions presented on July 15 are “modifiable and improvable, with social interlocutors and parliamentarians during the budget debate.”
However, even if the government approves the motion of trust, will risk its survival in the future due to a set of clearly unpopular measures. These measures affect a broad spectrum of French and Bayrou will continue in their threatened position. More than a year of the 2024 parliamentary elections has already passed, so you can legally call elections. Is that the final exit of France?
First consequences
The markets have taken the possible consequences of the vote. The general index of the Paris Stock Exchange, which on Monday had already suffered a 1.59 % drop with the announcement of Bayrou, has further accelerated the decrease this morning. After closing at 7,843.04 points, the CAC-40 has opened with 7,726.24 points and the descent has been aggravated during the first hour, when it has become exceeding 2 %.
The trend indicator has been below the symbolic threshold of 7,600 points and bank values are those that have resent more within the selective. The collapse at 10.00 premises (the same time in Madrid), when CAC-40 lost 2.14 %, was 8.03 % for Société Générale, 7.07 % for BNP Paribas and 6.53 % for Credit Agricole.
In the early morning, the French risk premium – the surcharity paid by the country to finance in the ten -year markets compared to Germany, which serves as a reference – regained 77.2 basic points, compared to 75.2 points at the close of the markets on Monday.
And that the interest rate to which the French debt titles are quoted at ten years has dropped very slightly 3.5 %, compared to 3,507 % yesterday, which is explained by a greater fall for German bonds.
