As it is once again before one, with which all French governments have faced their efforts to present measures to restrict and collapse, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is trying to do what he is going through to secure his critical support.
At the same time, however, opposition parties are already starting to consider how to move in the “after Bayrou era”.
Budget, the “curse” of French governments
The country is again immersed in political uncertainty, only eight months after Bayrou formed a new government that is now in danger of falling, for the same reasons that led to the overthrow and its predecessor, Michel Barnier: his inability to go through a budget, despite his “budget” and “
Both the opposition and public opinion reject the budgetary cuts of approximately 44 billion euros. After calling on mobilizations on September 10, the prime minister played his last paper yesterday Monday, announcing that he would ask for a vote of confidence two days earlier, on the 8th of the month.
The French markets collapsed with his unexpected move to seek a vote of confidence, while his proposal was categorically rejected by all opposition parties, which said they would take the opportunity to speed up his government’s stay.
The target of Bairo are the Socialists who have already announced yesterday that they will vote against him, though he hoped that a compromise could be found.
Mess or responsibility
At a symbolic moment when he underlined his difficult position, Bairou stumbled and almost flourished as he went on stage to make his first comments from the announcement of the confidence vote. He said that legislators now have to choose between “chaos” and “responsibility” and urged the French to push their representatives to make a prudent choice before September 8th.
“I don’t ask anyone to change your mind, but one can think about it,” Bairou later told reporters.
If Bayrou fails, Macron could dismantle parliament and call for new parliamentary elections – a move he has previously rejected – or establish a new government. However, none of these actions are likely to solve the fiscal problems or the political impasse of France.
Increase in the taxation of the rich promises Bairou
François Bairou reiterated that higher incomes would be called upon to make a “specific effort” in the budget of 2026 and suggested that the unions manage to manage old age insurance if the National Assembly allows him to continue his work.
But the reactions of the parties, as early as Monday, leave almost no room for optimism for the government, which lacks a majority in December in December. Unless there is a dramatic turn, the opposition assures that France will virtually be left without government in two weeks.
Hurry Poll: More than 7 out of 10 want the government to fall
The next day at the François Bairou press conference, more than 7 out of 10 French (72%) do not want the prime minister to receive a confidence vote, as revealed by ELABE poll for BFMTV.
According to the poll, the head of the government does not have public opinion on his side: only 27% of respondents say they hope that Francois Bayrou will be maintained by MPs.
In contrast to the alarming rhetoric of the executive, most respondents believe that the government’s fall would “not be problematic for the country’s financial and financial situation” (22%) or that this situation “is already very serious (and) cannot be worsen” (51%).
History shows instability
This political instability, an unprecedented fact for the fifth French Republic, established in 1958 precisely to put an end to the “waltz of governments”, was caused by the dissolution of the National Assembly in June 2024 by President Emmanuel Macron after his defeat. The ensuing parliamentary elections led to the formation of a national assembly divided into three blocks: Alliance of the Left, Macronists- Right and Right. None of these blocks have an absolute majority.
Instability can also lead to economic turmoil. An indication of the concern is the fact that the Paris Stock Exchange closed with a 1.70% declined today, with large lost banks, holding a large number of government bonds.
France’s public debt is 114% of its GDP, that is, the third largest in the eurozone, after those in Greece and Italy.
Trying to calm down concerns, Finance Minister Eric Lobar assured that France “today is not threatened by any intervention, neither the IMF, nor the ECB, nor any other international organization.”
Interior Minister Bruno Retaur, who is leading the conservative Republicans, said it would be “irresponsible” and “against the interests of France” to vote on the fall of the government.
Elections want Lepen
The far -right national alarm, led by Marin Lepen, said that Macron prefers to call early parliamentary elections. “I don’t see which new prime minister will not be convicted immediately,” a source near Lepen told Reuters.
The Socialists, whose vote will also be critical, also said they would vote against Bairo.
“We need a different prime minister and, above all, a different policy,” the head of the Socialist MPs Bajo wrote in X.
The confidence vote will take place two days before the protests that have called on various groups on social media and supported by left parties and some unions, reminiscent of the riots of the yellow vests that broke out in 2018 for increases in fuel prices and costs.
“Unless François Bairou stays in power – something that is a case that seems unlikely today – we will enter a new phase that will be a phase of destabilization,” said dumper Jean Daniel Levi, anticipating negative consequences for the economy and image abroad.
