It promises to simplify the consumer tax system in Brazil, but a side effect can reach small and medium -sized companies that are today in Simples Nacional. The impact is especially relevant to those who operate in model B2B, selling products or providing services to larger companies.
An unprecedented study points out that small and medium companies may lose contracts and space for competitors outside the simplified regime. Confection, logistics and technology would be the sectors of Simples Nacional most threatened by tax reform. From 2026, Brazil begins the transition phase of reform marked by the creation of the Tax on Goods and Services (IBS) and the Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS).
The “X-ray of Simples Nacional in 2025” study conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Planning and Taxation (IBPT) showed that more than 70% of companies framed in the simplified regime operate in model B2B, ie they do not sell to the end consumer. Precisely this profile tends to suffer more from the changes brought by CBS and IBS.
For Carlos Pinto, director of IBPT and author of the study, the new logic of tax credits can reduce the competitiveness of companies opting for simple ones in the actual or presumed profit regimes.
He says the center point is in the PIS and Cofins credits, which today are taken at 9.25% of the invoice value, regardless of the supplier’s regime. “With the reform, the rule changes: credit will be equivalent to the tax actually paid by the provider. If the company chooses to segregate CBS and IBS, as the government suggests, all the logic that is known will change,” he explains.
“The companies of Simples Nacional, in format, which we see today, will not be more interesting, because they do not generate sufficient credit to compensate the 28% that the company will pay,” he adds.
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This change can reduce interest in hiring small businesses. Although the transition from the new system goes until 2033, the effects can be felt well before. Companies that take time to reposition themselves at risk of losing competitiveness in the coming years.
Invisible risk
Business focused directly on the end consumer, such as restaurants, beauty salons and small trades, continue to find a advantageous regime in the simple. Already who acts as a supplier in industrial chains or specialized services may need to reevaluate the frame. “Companies operating in B2C will feel the effects of Split Payment, but in this case the tax issue may still be worth it,” says the director.
Study numbers also show relevant effects in different sectors:
Technology and Digital Services: Most IT providers are simple, but serve large companies that will look for suppliers capable of generating tax credits.
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Confection: 84.6% of Simples companies provide retailers and do not sell directly to the consumer. These companies may lose space for not generating IBS/CBS credits.
Logistics and Cargo Transportation: 62.3% of companies in the area are in the simple. Providers who serve industries can become less attractive.
“The departure to the companies of Simples Nacional is to have an advice that can guide the standards that will need to adopt from contracts to tax planning,” says the director of IBPT.
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In addition to internal reorganization, there is also the need for mobilization of the sector. “It is essential to make entrepreneurs aware of the risks and bring this debate to representative entities. Small companies need to understand the size of change and prepare to not lose space in the market,” he concludes.
