The in Spain points towards stability, according to the advanced data published on Friday the National Statistics Institute (INE). The advance with respect to August 2024, of 2.7%, confirms the pause in the sequence of increases observed in the previous two months, when the consumer price index (CPI) went from 2% to 2.3% in June, and then.
The INE blames the break to the behavior of food and electricity, which compensated for fuels. Along the same lines, the Ministry of Economy points, which highlights the decrease in prices from August 2024, as well as an increase in electricity more moderate than that registered a year ago. However, he adds, the fuel was reduced less than then, which has prevented a greater containment of prices.
The underlying index, which excludes energy and food not elaborated by being considered too volatile, advanced a tenth and stood at 2.4%. This reflects a certain stability in the core of prices, in the absence of all these figures being confirmed in the coming weeks by the Statistical Institute.
From the department directed by Carlos Body, they stress that “the combination of stability in prices and salary increases are allowing families to progressively recover their purchasing power.”
The recent behavior of inflation in Spain responds to a combination of internal and external pressures. Raymond Torres, Director of the Submit of Funcas, warns that the CPI “has moved less favorably to what was expected in recent months” due, above all, and the volatility of the electricity market after the April blackout. In addition, he points out that tourism -related services “have shown a resistance down, pushed by strong summer demand, although its impact could be close to exhausting.”
Looking ahead to the coming months, Torres does not rule out a punctual rebound, although the trend that is projected for the end of the year is that of moderation: “If this dynamic is maintained, inflation could even climb up to 3% in September, before starting to relax at the end of the year and converge towards the media of the Eurozone, around 2%, which is the goal of the European Central Bank”.
For its part, Zoel Martín Vilató, economist from Caixabank Research, considers that current movements respond mainly to the volatility of the most sensitive components of the price basket. “Oscillations in electricity, fuels and fresh foods are compensating each other, while tourist services should not exert more pressure after the strong increase recorded last summer,” he says.
On the one hand, it was foreseeable that the price of electricity fluctuated down. “This was suggested by the price of the PVPC rate, which is usually a good predictor and has fallen by 2.1% intermencing this August,” he explains. The strong rebound that took place in August last year, continues, is a base effect that could reduce the interannual variation rate of the price of electricity to the range of 10% or 15% in front of 17.3% in July.
On the other, everything pointed out that they would press upward inflation, Martín Vilató continues. “The price of gasoline has fallen an intermensual 0.6% this August. However, the 2.5% drop in the same month last year represents a base effect that will moderate the fall in the year -on -year variation rate of the price of fuels, which retreated 4.5% in July.”
Together, analysts agree that the evolution of inflation in the coming months will depend largely on the behavior of energy prices, fresh foods and the so -called base effect with respect to 2024. With the general inflation anchored in 2.7% and the underlying showing symptoms of moderation, the scenario points towards greater stability and a gradual approach to the average of the half zone of the euro zone, in the surroundings of the euro zone, in the surroundings of 2%.
