BRASILIA (Reuters)-The government sent the 2026 budget project on Friday to the National Congress predicting a surplus of R $ 34.5 billion, near the center of the fiscal target, in a project that also projected up 2.44% for next year’s GDP, the Ministry of Planning and Budget said.
The target of primary result for 2026 is a surplus of 0.25% of GDP, or R $ 34.3 billion. The government project, therefore, has a small leftover about the goal. The rule foresees a tolerance band of 0.25 percentage point for more or less.
According to the planning, the primary result of the year – difference between revenues and expenses, excluding spending on public debt interest – will be obtained after the deduction of R $ 57.8 billion of spending on precatory that are not accounted for the goal by decision of the Supreme Court (STF).
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The text foresees R $ 2.577 trillion in net revenues, which exclude transfers to states and municipalities. Total expenses were set at R $ 2.601 trillion.
Implemented in the current management of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the tax framework allows government spending to grow at 70% of the collection, limited annually to a real increase between 0.6% and 2.5%.
According to the portfolio, the 2026 budget provides R $ 83 billion related to the disbursement floor for investment. For the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), the destination was R $ 52.9 billion.
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The achievement of the surplus proposed in 2026 is considered challenging by analysts in the midst of an acceleration of compulsory expenses with social security and social benefits, which compress other government spending.
The expectation of the market is that the government will have a deficit of 0.60% of GDP next year, according to the latest Central Bank Focus Bulletin.
The project, which will also undergo analysis and vote in the legislature, also provides that the minimum wage from January 2026 will be R $ 1,631 – the national floor is today at R $ 1,518. The amount may change depending on inflation variation until the closing of the year.
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The projection of GDP presented in the text came in line with the forecast made in July by the Ministry of Finance, which pointed to a high of 2.4% of the activity next year.
The text also maintained the forecast of 3.6% for inflation of 2026.
