When Hurricane Erin intensified explosively in the Atlantic Ocean last week, brought alerts about his rapid transformation. The storm developed as a category 5 monster with this ultra -rare intensification rate, with winds accelerating at 137 km/h within 24 hours.
Studies have shown that tropical cyclones have a greater propensity to intensify rapidly as the planet warms up, which can endanger people who live near the coast. Often these residents are preparing for a tropical storm, but suddenly they come across a great threatening hurricane.
This is a real nightmare for any emergency manager.
Rapid intensification is defined as an increase in the sustained maximum winds of a storm by at least 56 km/h in 24 hours, but in recent years, and certainly with the storms have greatly exceeded this limit.
Hurricane Milton, for example, had an intensification rate of 145 km/h in 24 hours while crossing the gulf ultra -annual waters last year.
Hurricane Erin is also in the upper echelon of the historical storms of the Atlantic Basin.
Increase in the proportion of hurricanes
An alarming number of hurricanes in the Atlantic has intensified rapidly in recent years. The hurricanes Milton, Ian, Helene, and Ida have emerged in recent seasons, while high ocean temperatures hit records.
It is no surprise that the experts said to CNN “But you shouldn’t expect all hurricanes to reach.”
“There has been a remarkable increase in the proportion of (hurricanes) that have been undergoing rapid intensification and extremely rapid intensification” in the North Atlantic Basin and globally, said Gabe Vecchi, a climate researcher at Princeton University in New Jersey.
“Erin was extreme, even in a warmer world,” said the expert, but the chances of his extremely rapid intensification rate “were increased by historical tropics heating.”
Daniel Gilford, a climatologist of the non -profit group Research and Communication Central Central, said the main link between increasing rapidly intensified hurricanes proportion and the last years lies in ocean heating.
“There seems to be consistent evidence suggesting that rapidly intensified events are becoming more frequent with climate change and that as we continue to warm the planet, sea surface temperatures are allowing rapid intensification to occur more often,” said Gilford.
Factors that increase the intensity of the hurricanes
Climate Central published a quick analysis by observing this connection shortly after Hurricane Erin reaches category 5.
It was found that the heating of the oceans due to climate policy most likely made a difference for the storm to reach the intensity of category 5, rather than just a category 4 storm with less destructive potential if it reached the land.
But there is reasons to believe that hurricanes that intensify rapidly will not continue to get worse – or even become the norm. And the global warming caused by man may not be responsible for all current trends.
For example, the maximum potential intensity of a hurricane is governed not only by ocean temperature, but also by atmospheric factors, including the difference between the temperature of the lower and upper atmosphere, Kim Wood explained, atmospheric scientist at the University of Arizona.
“I always like to include the caveat that water heating (increased sea surface temperature) is not directly correlated with higher intensified rates,” Wood said.
Since the upper atmosphere has also been warming, this has increased atmospheric stability, which is equivalent to braking, at least slightly, the intensification rates and the maximum intensity that a storm can reach if the conditions are ideal.
Scientist Kim Wood has performed an analysis to determine how much fast intensification rates are becoming more common and found that Erin’s cutting -edge intensifiers are seeing some of the highest frequency heels in the Atlantic, rather than storms that strengthen exactly in the definition of rapid intensification (56km/h in 24 hours).
Moreover, not all the warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades is directly attributable to global warming.
In the end, however, the warmer the world gets, the more likely that incipient tropical cyclones take advantage of warmer oceans and other factors to fire in intensity, climatologist Daniel Gilford said.
“We live in a world where there will be more Erin cyclones in the future, and these types of events will happen more often,” added the climatologist.
