On the one hand, the United States hardened its rhetoric against drug trafficking against the Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his government. On the other hand, Caracas repeatedly rejected all accusations related to drug trafficking, while Maduro states that “no empire will touch the sacred soil” of the country.
Amid this exchange of barbs, both the US and Venezuela announced significant military detachments, including active military staff, and aircraft. To what extent can this confrontation get worse? According to experts consulted by CNNthere are several scenarios to be considered.
How does the situation come to this point?
At the end of July, the United States classified the. The alleged Venezuelan criminal group, according to Washington, has corrupted Venezuela’s highest political, military and judicial levels since the late 1990s to send drugs to the United States.
Shortly thereafter, in August, the Trump government reiterated its accusation that Nicolás Maduro is the leader of the cartel and doubled the
The accusations against Maduro, repeated and categorically rejected by the Venezuelan government, are not new. They date back to 2020, when the US identified Maduro as the Los Soles cartel leader and initially offered $ 15 million for information that led to his prison.
Amid the growing tensions between the two countries, the Trump government is conducting a major military detachment in Latin American and Caribbean waters as part of one, two US defense officials told CNN last week. The detachment includes 4,000 soldiers, a nuclear -propulsive attack submarine, additional P8 recognition aircraft, several guided missile cruiser, added authorities.
In turn, stating that “no empire will touch the sacred soil of Venezuela” and minimizing the “threats to peace” in the country. The president said his country has defensive capacity to avoid confrontation.
Maduro declared the record a success and ordered him to continue the following week. However, the Venezuelan did not provide numbers regarding the first two days of the call to volunteers – most of whom without prior military experience – while the opposition claimed that the calling had been a “failure.”
Some registration centers, such as Plaza Bolivar in Caracas, recorded a significant participation of volunteers, while other locations had a much lower participation.
The Venezuelan militia, linked to the Bolivarian National Armed Forces, was created in 2005 by and formally established in 2010. Maduro said in 2020 that more than 4.5 million members of the militia were already registered
Likewise, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López announced on Tuesday (26) the sending of ships to territorial waters in the Caribbean as part of a plan to combat “terrorist, armed and drug trafficking groups,” while amid tensions with the United States.
With the ships, the operational displacement of 15,000 military personnel begins in the states of Táchira and Zulia, on the Colombian border, Padrino López added.
A direct invasion is unlikely, experts say.
With US military assets positioned in Caribbean Águas, a possible scenario would be a direct invasion of Venezuela, something unlikely at this time, according to José Antonio Hernández Macias, a doctor of Latin American Studies from the Mexico National University (UNAM).
The expert points out that the cost, “both political and humanitarian”, would be very high for Trump in this case, as it would involve other actors, such as the
Therefore, Hernández Macias believes that there is another more likely scenario.
“I find it unlikely that a direct invasion can be performed. Instead, I see more targeted operations; that is, instead of a large -scale invasion, we could choose actions, for example, such as drone attacks” to dismantle drug trafficking operations that Washington denounces, said the researcher at the Latin America and the Caribbean (CIALC) of UNAM.
“Surgical activity”
José Briceño Ruiz, PhD in Political Science from the Institute of Political Studies of Aix-en-Provence and Cialc researcher, agreed with his colleague and said it would be more likely to see “surgical activity” related to drug trafficking.
“One scenario is that, in fact, there is very solid evidence within the United States government of drug trafficking activities in Venezuelan territory (…) so (US military mobilization) is possibly surgical activity to destroy infrastructure than (in Washington) they call Los Soles cartel, exist or not,” said Briceño Ruiz in an interview with an interview with CNN.
If the US intensifies military operations, they may target not only infrastructure but also “Venezuelan government -specific leaders.”
“People for whom there is an arrest warrant, attach them and bring them to justice in the United States,” the doctor of political science said.
In addition to Maduro, the United States Government has accounted for other Venezuelan drug trafficking politicians since 2020, such as Diosda Cabello, current Interior and Justice Minister, and Hugo “Pollo” Carvajal Barrios, former director of Venezuelan military intelligence.
Since early August, the US has offered $ 25 million for Cabello’s capture and $ 15 million for Vladimir Padrino, Venezuela Minister of Defense. The Venezuelan government considered the pathetic and ridiculous offer. Cabello, in turn, called the Los Soles cartel “Washington’s invention” and “a big lie with the intention of manipulating.”
Retired general Hugo Carvajal Barrios – arrested in Madrid in 2021 at the US request and extradited in 2023 – is considered one of the main leaders of the alleged cartel, according to the US Department of Justice. At the end of June this year, Carvajal stated guilty of drug trafficking and drug trafficking, crimes for which he could take life imprisonment. Pollo Carvajal’s sentence will be announced on October 29, according to the US Department of Justice.
Maduro pressure
The two UNAM experts observed that US military mobilization could be a way to press the Maduro regime to give in to some economic or political negotiations with the United States.
For Hernández Macias, the pressure is most likely a demonstration of Washington’s power.
Briceño Ruiz also agreed at this point and suggested that US military mobilization could press the activities of criminal groups in the region.
“I believe they (US military assets) will be here for a few weeks. I see this as a form of pressure, a way of drawing attention, and if there is really a drug trafficking network as a way to limit the performance of these illegal drug trafficking groups,” the doctor in political science said.
A US defense officer said before the CNN That, for now, increased troops is mainly a demonstration of strength, with the purpose of sending a message than indicating any intention to perform accurate attacks on cartels. However, it also offers US military commanders – and President Trump – a wide range of options if Trump orders a military action.
The worst scenario?
Of all possible scenarios, a direct invasion of the Venezuelan territory would be the worst, warns Gabriel Pastor, analyst at the Center for Economic and Social Reality Studies (Ceres), a Think Tank based in Uruguay.
Given Trump’s foreign policy approach – both threats fulfilled and not fulfilled – this scenario should not be completely discarded and should be considered a real possibility, Pastor said in an interview with CNN.
He adds that if a direct invasion of Venezuela occurred, it would be “the 21st century Noriega,” referring to the US military invasion of Panama in December 1989 to overthrow dictator Manuel Noriega, accused by the US of organized crime, money laundering and drug trafficking.
“To talk about such a situation (a new US invasion in Latin America), we have to return to December 1989, to the orderly invasion by George Bush against dictator Manuel Antonio Noriega, who was also for drug trafficking,” explained the CERES analyst.
The situations were completely different. First, we are talking about the dictatorship of Noriega, which lasted from 1983 to 1989; Now we are talking about 26 years of Chavista governments. Nor are we talking about the same military power. Of course, Venezuela today has a superior military infrastructure than Panama, but never comparable to that of the United States, ”he added.
Although it is currently talking about sending about 4,000 soldiers to the Caribbean, and in 1989 it was talked about sending 26,000 military personnel from the US Armed Forces to Panama, the difference lies in the fact that US military technology is far superior today.
“What military technology does is not to use people in action. So we have over 4,000 mobilized soldiers, missile destroyers, spy aircraft, war ships, attack submarines. It’s an infernal infrastructure” to the United States, Pastor said.
The Global Fire Power website, which specializes in military analysis and using official statistics or estimates when unavailable, classifies Venezuela in 50th place in military power in its 2025 ranking, between 145 countries. The United States are first, Russia in second and China third.
According to the 2025 Global Fire Power ranking, the Venezuelan army has 115,000 members, the Navy has 25,500 and the Air Force has 20,000 members.
By comparison, the ranking shows that the US Army has more than 1.4 million members, the Navy has 667,108 members and the Air Force has 701,319.
