Last Friday (29), the government presented to the National Congress, the PLOA (annual budget bill) for 2026 with a primary surplus forecast of R $ 34.3 billion (0.25% of gross domestic product).
The text projects economic growth of 2.44%, inflation of 3.6% and average selic rate of 13.11% for next year.
For economist Lucas Squeto, from GO Associados, the parameters are overestimated.
“I don’t know if you can call a fiction piece, but it’s a very optimistic budget. The government projects GDP by 2.44%, but the median of Focus is below 2%. If the economy grows less, collects less and this compromises the goal,” he said in an interview with Market closing, CNN Money.
The executive director of IFI (Independent Fiscal Institution) of the Senate, Marcus Pestana, also evaluates that GDP growth projection is optimistic about reality. In the expert’s assessment, the feasibility of Ploa 2026 depends on a number of factors that depend on different agents.
“It is very tight. It has bold assumptions. The prospect of growth that is embedded in the budget is 2.4% of GDP. And everything, is an optimistic goal of GDP growth,” IFI executive director told the IFI director Now CNN.
For the budgetary piece to be feasible, the congress will not be necessary to dehydrate the Provisional Measure 1,303 – – that congressmen maintain that there is success, whose expected revenue is just over $ 20 billion in 2026, highlighted in an interview with CNN Brazil.
“The budget delivered to Congress by the federal government reveals the fragility of the fiscal situation. It is an extremely tight budget, full of questions and doubts,” said IFI executive director.
Worried market
According to Monte Bravo chief economist, Luciano Costa, the financial market is concerned with the dynamics of revenues and expenses provided for in.
HAS CNNCosta said that the growth of government spending on social programs, especially with Bolsa Familia and the, causes doubts among market agents.
The Ploa predicts that next year.
“In general, the market expectation is that the government will continue to have difficulty generating a consistent trajectory of the primary surplus. Our expectation is worse than that of the government when we look at these R $ 23.3 billion [resultado primário do governo central]which gives around 0.2% of GDP. We think it will be closer to 0.5% of next year’s GDP, ”Costa told CNN.
Fiscal frustration
For Monte Bravo chief economist, there is a risk of tax frustration based on the PLOA parameters, both on the expenses and the revenue side.
“It may have a reduction in estimates throughout the year, which may have to be compensated for new collection measures,” said Luciano.
He added: “On the other hand, in the expense, may have reevaluation to increase some expenses and the government is forced to make new contingencies to be able to comply with the framework of the framework.”
On the expense side, the Ploa foresees R $ 2,428 trillion in primary expenses, being R $ 245.5 billion for health and R $ 133.7 billion for education.
In an interview with CNN Moneyeconomist Lucas Squeto pointed out that the budgetary framework reinforces fiscal stiffness.
He questions the strategy of the economic team to aim on the floor and then adjust with blockages. In his assessment, this shows that the fiscal goal is already born tight in an election year ,.
“The government points out that primary expenses are constant, but this should be a warning sign. Given the fragility of accounts, the effort should be to reduce spending, not just keep them,” he said.
GO economist Associados warns that, even in the optimistic scenario, the effort is insufficient. Sachet points out that, to stabilize the debt, a surplus would be required around 1.5% of GDP, not 0.25%.
In the sachet view, the budget also fails to propose structural cuts. For him, the government cannot find where to cut.
“There is always talk of increasing supervision or collection, but this is uncertain. Most expenses are cast and what is left over are investments and key areas, such as infrastructure. Without administrative reform or hard measures, we continue with a budget of those who are in debt and even bear superfluous spending,” he said.
Posted by Vitória Queiroz
