In front of one of the most critical moments of his prime minister and possibly his political life, he chose to play everything for everything. In a surprise statement last Monday (25/8), the French prime minister announced that, with a message summed up on “either you will support or chase me”, throwing the glove on allies and opponents. For a minority prime minister, this is a dangerous bet, almost impossible to win, as all analysts note.
The next day, Bayrou, who took over his duties just nine months ago after President Macron, said on Tuesday that he would “fight like a dog” to maintain his position. However, as both the far -right and the left -wing opposition have already announced that they will vote against him.
However, no matter how volatility has caused the impending change of yet another prime minister in France, it was an expected scenario following the presentation of the basic budget guidelines for 2026, which provides for a tough fiscal adjustment plan and which caused anger across the political spectrum. Bairou insists that austerity is necessary because it is “bankrupt” and approaches a “national emergency” because of its deficit and debt.
In his own position, now the long -standing prime minister seems to cause his political opponents to take responsibility for his overthrow, hoping that no one will want to be charged the consequences and the potential chaos that will be caused, especially at the time when the pressures.
Speaking anonymously to Politico, executives of the French Prime Minister’s environment admit that they had hoped that Marin Lepen’s far -right party would change stance, mainly for strategy reasons. But everything shows that Bairo’s political clock now counts, among other things, the sad record of the most unpopular prime minister in the history of the fifth French Republic.
The expected vote on September 8, coupled with the nationwide protests against cuts organized on September 10 by the Bloquons TOUT movement, foreshadows an explosive two days that can bring the country to the boundaries of Paralysis – Institutional. An early poll on the TF1 channel showed that 63% of citizens are in favor of dismantling parliament and 68% believe that President Macron should resign if the next election does not end the parliamentary impasse.
Matinion’s “Cassandra”
According to Paul Taylor, a Guardian columnist and associate of the European Policy Center, Bairo’s bet was essentially based on the hope that the vote would focus solely on the budgetary crisis, which may have persuaded several opposition MPs to abstain. But, as he points out, neither the political order nor the public seem to share Bairo’s concern about a possible debt crisis and “New Greece”.
In this case, Politico compares him to Kassandra: he warns of destruction, but no one listens to him. But despite the democratic collapse, Bayrou continues to appear, speaks, interviews and speeches, defends his vision for a “responsible France”.
Many believe that this is no longer so much a battle for his stay in Matinion as for his posthumous. Indicatively, Bloomberg comments that as his positions on the need for fiscal consolidation do not move the citizens, they seem to be part of a strategic building of his / her policy as the prime minister who “warned” and “sacrificed”.
It remains to be seen whether he will eventually remain in history as a prime minister who caused the collapse or as a politician who tried to save the country at the cost of his own office.
