When customs rates are applied to many imported goods ,.
According to President Donald Trump, foreign countries and companies are supporting costs. But the tests show that consumers and US companies are paying the rates that management has implemented as their lever.
“It is proven that even at this late rate, the tariffs have not caused inflation or any other problems for America, as well as massive amounts of money to enter the coffers of our treasure,” Trump published on his social network, Truth Social in early August. “In addition, it has been shown that, in most cases, consumers are not even paying these tariffs, it is especially companies and governments, many of them foreigners, who pay the bills.”
Trump’s publication did not include any foundation for his statements.
There is a growing field of evidence otherwise: people, and people show that it is American companies and consumers who are supporting increasingly high costs due to tariffs.
This burden is expected to become even heavier in the coming months – and potentially years – as more tariffs come into force and others settle more deeply in supply chains.
What the latest data show
If foreign exporters are absorbing tariff costs, a possible way to see this in US economic data is whether their pre-tax export prices are lowering.
If this is the case, it would translate into a descent or fall in US import prices.
However, data in recent months show that import prices (which exclude customs, insurance and transportation costs) have remained virtually stable. They rose 0.5% since the November elections and 0.2% since March, when most new rates were announced, according to a recent note by Pantheon Macroeconomics.
“An argument that seemed plausible until recently import prices had been supported by premariferous stocks in [a última parte de 2024 e os primeiros três meses de 2025]they saw imports of goods fool to record levels, ”Pantheon Samuel Tombs and Oliver Allen economists are written in a note of 19 August.” This has left foreign exporters full of orders, providing little incentive to cut pre-trifling prices to remain competitive. But import prices have been resistant, although imports of goods have very markedly retreated in [segundo trimestre]which suggests that a sharp descent of prices in the future is unlikely. “
A more detailed analysis of import prices data indicates that there is a slight descent of import prices from China; However, for the vast majority of countries, prices were basically stable, said Olu Sonola, head of US economic investigation at Fitch Ratings, in an interview with CNN.
“This tells us that all this is paid by importers,” he says. “Now it’s a matter of knowing if it’s the manufacturer, whether it’s retailers or if they are the small companies that are bringing the products. Now you have to realize: ‘How much can I accept and how much will I move to the other side?
“It’s very likely to pass most,” he adds.
To date, consumers have mostly protected from higher prices.
Containers at the Pacific Terminal of the Port of Los Angeles, California, on July 8. (Eric Thayer/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
Until June, US consumers have absorbed 22% of customs rates costs, but this percentage is expected to increase to 67% by October, according to an August 10th estimate of Goldman Sachs economists. This assessment led Trump to demand that the investment giant said his chief economist.
Goldman Sachs economists say they expect about 70% of direct customs rights to fall on the consumer and that the total can rise to 100% if the indirect effects of the increase in national producers are included (something that has already been expected to continue – more about it below).
There is an endless list of reasons why customs price increases are a slow boil: companies have carried their warehouses with pre-trifled goods; The highest costs were divided by entities along the supply chain, reducing the impact on the retail store; And Trump’s approach to tariffs has made most of them come into force for months and many articles are exempt (at least for now).
At the same time, inflation remained relatively moderate, for good and not so good reasons: the ongoing deflationist trends in key areas, which mark a continuation of the reduction in scarcity and pandymic era price peaks; The drop in gas prices (decreased by 9.5% compared to July last year) in the midst of global economic uncertainty; and then due to the reduction of consumer demand in areas such as travel.
Still, recent consumer price rate inflation reports reveal increases at the cost of certain imports that the United States depend strongly, including domestic furniture, bedding, tools, toys and sports items.
Slow and tariff inflation
From August 8, imported goods cost 5% more than pre-trifle trends and internally produced goods are 3% more expensive, according to the investigation recently released by Harvard Business School teacher, Alberto Cavallo, and colleagues.
Cavallo, in an interview with CNN, explains that he expects the ticket to continue in constant increments, but may be limited in some cases, depending on the competitiveness of the product and industry category.
“I think it may take more than a year to see some of the effects of these rates,” he says. “But in a year, maybe two years, we will notice that consumers eventually paid a significant amount of tariffs, even if they did not notice their increases immediately.”
Last week, a new study by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank showed that companies – those that are directly exposed to tariffs and those who are not – expect to increase prices this year.
At the end of 2024, the corporate companies were expected to increase their prices by 2.5% during the following year. In mid -May, these estimates rose to 3.5%, according to the Atlanta Fed, which concluded that there was little difference in expectations of growth in companies with or without abroad exposure.
However, the inquiry revealed some more pronounced increases expected among service companies, which raised questions about whether these price increases could give an inflationary impetus as shown three years ago.
“The main concern with regard to the impact of tariffs is whether we will have the same phenomenon we watched during the pandemic. That is, will pressures on prices spread beyond prices directly affected by increasing import rights?
A buyer carries articles for a vehicle at the door of a Walmart store in San Leandro, California, on 19 August. David Paul Morris/Bloomberg/Getty Images
But in the coming months, the expectations are that the passage of tariffs will be gradual and prolonged, says Matt Bush, US economist at Guggenheim Investments, in an interview with CNN.
“Companies say they are working with suppliers and consumers to help share part of the costs,” says Bush. “Companies say they are working with suppliers and consumers to help share some of the costs. But I think that, as you realize that these tariffs will not come down, they will start to pass more to consumers.”
The greatest retailer in the world said the same on Thursday: Walmart CEO Doug McMillon ensures that the company’s costs increase every week because of tariffs, but aims to keep prices low “while we can.”
Small increases over time can make life easier for some consumers; However, for others – especially those with little or no margin of maneuver in their budgets – this slow burning may well seem like a slow bleeding.
“Americans with lower income are sadly skilled to juggle their expenses and try to enforce every cent,” writes Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, an email sent to CNN. “They may be without meat or coffee in a week to buy their children’s shoes. The following week, they may not pay the car to cover the electricity bill and a medical expense. It is a constant juggling in which they affect the money to their most urgent need at this time.”
Retailers and big brands know that many Americans live on salary in salary, so they are using “stealth inflation” to make tariffs in small increments, hoping that consumers will not realize or are able to absorb them better, Long adds.
