The powerful economic machinery that Russia has fed for decades with oil production is showing deep cracks. Rosneftthe country’s main oil company, has registered a catastrophic fall in its benefitsin what could be the clearest indication to date that The war in Ukraine are dismantling the financing of the Russian war.
The one published by the state energy giant that once was the Kremlin economic engine reflects that Its net income collapsed 68.3% in the first half of 2025from 773 billion rubles (more than 8,200 million euros) to 245,000 million (about 2.6 billion euros).
“The first semester of the current year was characterized by a Reduction of oil prices, first of all, due to excess production“, details the CEO of Rosneft, Igor Sechincited in the report.
One of the most alarming data is The collapse of the company’s free cash flow, which was reduced by 75%, falling from 6,780 million dollars to only 2,170 million. This decrease is devastating for Rosneft, a company that has historically distributed great dividends and needs large amounts of capital for expensive projects in the Arctic, in addition to the financing of military operations in Ukraine.
The weight of sanctions and the inability of influence
Sechin has pointed out that the “strictest restrictions of the sanctions of the EU and the US” have forced the company to Sell Russian crude with great discountswhich, added to the Strengthening of the ruble“it negatively affects the financial results of all exporters.”
Even more worrying for Russia is your Loss of influence on the world oil market. Sechin, who in the past firmly defended limited cooperation with the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC), is now seen Forced to beg to control crude oil prices. The Russian businessman recalls that several members “actively increase the extraction” of crude, in particular, Saudi Arabia, Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait.
“There is also a increase in extraction in Brazil and other countries. According to our estimates and the expectations of the main energy agencies, The surplus in the crude oil market in the fourth quarter of 2025 will be 2.6 million barrels per day (MBD), and in 2026, 2.2 MBD “he adds.
In addition, the . It is estimated that Up to 17% of the refineries in Russia are out of service due to the constant attacksand in some regions the rationing of fuel has already been implemented. Consequently, wholesale gasoline prices have risen 45%, despite the fall in world prices of crude oil.
Rosneft’s projections now They are based on a conservative price of 45 dollars by oil barrelwhich reflects the expectation that pressures on prices and sanctions will continue to seriously affect the Russian economy.
