The (Federal Supreme Court) will start on Tuesday (2) the trial that may lead to prison in closed regime. The repercussions of the decision will not only be legal: they will have effects on the political and digital field.
On social networks, the former president’s supporters are already moving, giving the tone of what should be the response lines over the coming weeks.
Palver data, which monitors more than 100,000 public groups of WhatsApp and Telegram, reveal the size of this mobilization: between 25 and 31 August the mentions were around 700 messages per 100,000 exchanged on the platform, with peak on August 24, when thieves invaded Flávio’s mother’s house and grandparents, Carlos, and.
Approximately 28% of messages over the period have evidence of mass referral, a sign that it is not just a spontaneous manifestation, but the content produced and distributed in a coordinated manner.
The right -wing digital environment is organized around three great narratives.
The first is the direct attack on the Supreme Court, which appears in 21% of the messages, portrayed as a political and partial actor. The second bet on the internationalization of the conflict, with 19.7% of quotes making references to the US, and Magnitsky Law. The third revolves around Bolsonaro’s possible arrest, present in 14.9% of conversations, treated as evidence of “Lawfare” and a persecution system.
Within these narratives, there is a significant set of messages that support the narrative of victimization, with terms such as “censorship” and “dictatorship of the toga”. These speech lines are fed by an influencers ecosystem.
Eduardo Bolsonaro, responsible for 11.5% of the mentions, is today the Bolsonarist link in Washington, articulating the narrative that his father’s fate also depends on international pressure.
Paulo Figueiredo Filho is the right arm of Eduardo Bolsonaro in this strategy of approaching the Trump administration, reinforces the rhetoric of sanctions against Brazilian authorities and conditions the negotiation of tariffs to the scholarship demands in Congress, such as amnesty approval and PL 2628.
Another name that is associated with the conflict’s internationalization narrative is that of Jason Miller, Donald Trump’s political strategist and advisor, who appears linking pockets to trumps, giving the message that the White House is attentive to the trial, increasing the expectation that an American intervention if former President Jair Bolsonaro is convicted.
In the most radical field, Allan dos Santos invests in the strategy of reconstructing his digital presence, even after blockages, keeping alive the inflamed discourse against the Supreme. His last Instagram account was the one that showed the most growth in the right field in the last 90 days, growing growing Nikolas Ferreira and Eduardo Bolsonaro.
For broader audiences, journalist Alexandre Garcia fulfills the role of translator of the right messages in short, easily shared in WhatsApp groups.
The repercussion of the trial should keep social networks agitated over the coming weeks, as the decision is scheduled to take place only on September 12.
Until then, the narratives worked by pockets are expected to gain intensity as there are cuts that support one version or another, and should increase even more if there is any action during the trial, whether tariff or through official Trump government pronouncements.
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