The question related to how much life expectancy will increase in the future is an extremely controversial subject among scientists. From the current perspective, life expectancy has grown at an almost dizzying pace at the beginning of the 20th century. For example, people born in 1900 lived up to an average age of 62, while those born in 1938 lived up to about 80 years.
In a study recently published in the magazine “Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the researchers investigated whether people born between 1939 and 2000 will achieve similar increases in life expectancy. The analysis was carried out in 23 countries with high income and low mortality, transmits Noi.md with reference to
Din ceiling of cercetàri to the part Jose Andrade of the Institutul Max Planck Wisconsin-Madison.
“If today’s generations were to follow the same tendency as the one observed in the first half of the 20th century, a person born in 1980, for example, could be expected to live up to 100 years,” explains Andrade, the leader of the study.
The researchers managed to predict the life expectancy of the new generations. Their calculations were based on information from the database of human mortality (HMD). Using six different methods of forecasting mortality – statistical techniques that make predictions about the duration of future life based on past and present mortality information – the research team has estimated how life expectancy will evolve.
“In order to have solid results, we did not use a single method, but more: some consecrated, including the prospects of the world population, and others representing the forecast of mortality forecast,” said Andrade.
Two main approaches were used to complete the cohort mortality profiles:
- Period-based methods: These include methods such as Lee-Carter, mortality with smooth constraints, compositional data analysis and world population prospects (2024)
- Methods based on cohorts, including linear Lee-Carter distributions and cohorts segmented according to age to death
“All forecast methods show that life expectancy for those born between 1939 and 2000 increases slower than in the past. Depending on the method used, the rate slows between 37% and 52%,” explains the scientist.
“Our forecasts are that those born in 1980 will not live on average up to 100 years and none of the cohorts in our study will reach this important stage. This decrease is largely due to the fact that the previous increases of longevity have been determined by remarkable improvements of survival at very fragile ages.”
At the beginning of the twentieth century, child mortality decreased rapidly due to medical progress and other improvements. This is the cause of rapid growth of life expectancy at the beginning of the 20th century.
However, mortality in these age groups is already so low that there is little room for improvement. The forecasts of the researchers indicate that the mortality in the older age groups will not improve quickly enough to compensate for this decline.
Between 1900 and 1938, life expectancy increased by about five and a half months with each new generation. For those born between 1939 and 2000, the growth slowed about two and a half months to three and a half months per generation, depending on the forecast method.
Andrade, camarda and pifarré i arolar considers this result to be very robust. They argue that, even if survival among adults and older people would improve twice as much as the one provided in forecasts, the resulting increase in life expectancy would be inferior to that obtained in the first half of the 20th century.
Mortality forecasts can never be safe, because the future can be carried out in unexpected ways. Events such as pandemic, new medical treatments or societal changes can significantly affect the real life expectancy.
As a result, life expectancy may not align with anticipated trends. Therefore, forecasts should always be considered informed estimates. It is important to note that these forecasts apply to populations, not individuals.
Changes in life expectancy affect social cohesion and personal life planning. Governments must adapt health systems, pensions and social policies.
At the same time, life expectancy influences personal decisions on long -term saving, retirement and planning. If life expectancy grows slower, both governments and citizens may have to regain their expectations for the future.
