Consultations in Alaska were revealing about its targeting, but also for the difficulty of peace. The basic requirement of the Russian president is the allocation of all Donbas in return for Russia not to expand more to the provinces of Zaporizia and Hersona. The areas of Harcovo, Sumi and Chernihiv would be defined, according to Russian claim, as neutral zones. Russia thus calls for the territories held by Ukrainians in exchange for the promise not to extend to the territories it does not hold, based on its considered military advantage in the field. But the Ukrainians are difficult to accept this logic.
The area claimed by Russia in Donbas contains the fortified positions of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which are absolutely key to Ukrainian defense. In the event of occupation by Russia, they would act as a springboard to expand to the open steppe of central Ukraine, in areas less fortified and more flat around Dnipro. Ukraine would be hostage to the threat of a renewed Russian invasion and would be in a permanent insecurity that would facilitate its manipulation by Russia.
The issue of Donbas
Diplomatically, Donbas’ abandonment would mean not only international law but also de facto given the sharing of Korea or Berlin. Russia holds 88% of Donbas. It has almost understood Luhansk, but only 76.5% of Donetsk. In the areas controlled by Ukrainians, there are about 250,000 citizens inhabit. Donbas is the industrial heart of Ukraine, being rich in carbon, minerals and agricultural land. For the Russians, recognition of his possession would be presented as a war victory, since he was a primary goal of 2022.
The ambiguity for territorial terms is also due to the fact that by the meeting of the American envoy Steve Whitkov With the Russian president (on August 6) different versions were heard: e.g. That Russia in return for Donbas is withdrawn from Zaporizia and Hersona. Witten, a real estate tycoon, does not follow the established way of diplomatic conversations with full record. The result is an ambiguity that allows Russia to save time, continuing the war while having a regular advantage in view of an autumn attack.
Indicative, the attack of August 28 in Kiev, which, among 20 sites, hit a building next to the European Commission delegation suffered by the shock wave. Damages were also caused to the British Council office. At the same time, the Russians are being promoted in the area of the southeastern Dnipro.
Security guarantees
It is also vague, it is Witkov’s expression that “security guarantees” will resemble NATO’s “Article 5”. According to a marginal rope, security guarantees must be strong enough to have a deterrent to Russia, but not so much that they are inadmissible or in the end of a completely immediate war of Russia and the West. Washington allegedly excluded Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the mission of US troops among the peacekeeping forces. However, it did not rule out a European leadership force that guarantees Ukrainian security, providing air defense, information and overview of the field.
For the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Star star Security guarantees mean protecting the sea and sky of Ukraine with forces that will replace the decimated Ukrainian, will contribute to their training and prevent the resumption of hostilities. The French President Emmanuel Macron He stressed that Russia has no reason for the size of the Ukrainian forces. Following the meeting of August 18 in Washington, foreign ministers and military officials had extensive talks on planning a plan with the contribution of each country. At least 100,000 troops would need to protect the border and ideally another 300,000 backups, which is difficult for the current situation of the United Kingdom and France.
Discrepancy
The Russian side through the Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov rejects the existence of foreign forces in Ukraine. The Kremlin Press Spokesman Dmitry Peskov He said the avoidance of the presence of European peacekeeping forces is one of the “radical reasons” for which the military operation in Ukraine began. Russia expects to be among the guarantors and have some kind of veto, but which is inconceivable to Ukraine.
The Russian president prefers to negotiate through the US rather than directly, but his views do not coincide with those of Donald Trump. The US president believes that Ukraine cannot be turned into a second Belarus; this is not even justified by the situation in the field. Russia will have to retreat to some of its strategic concerns and purposes (demilitarization/neutralization of Ukraine, etc.) if it wants to keep territories. In this regard, the Trump administration would positively see a “alliance of willing” Europeans providing security to Ukraine. The question remains: would these forces grow near a truce line in eastern Ukraine or facilities away? Would they have the right to get involved in battles with Russia if it were needed?
The factor of time
Russia is hoping for Pokovsk’s encirclement and decisive victories, which leads to a derogatory tactic in a period of rise in the Ukrainian army. However, the losses of soldiers and the financial slowdown are reasons for Russia to negotiate. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators communicate without a clear date for a new direct negotiation. Ukraine mainly expects a complete clarification of the content of security guarantees on the west side.
THE Andrei Germakhead of the Ukrainian President’s office Volodimir Zelenskiand the Rastem UmeroHead of the Security Council, a diplomatic tour of Switzerland and New York began in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. A meeting is a meeting with Putin’s presence in Gulf countries, Turkey or in an acceptable European country. The Russian side, however, requires a complete agenda of issues by resolving the most important differences before a higher level meeting.
