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Even allies admit: it will hardly escape the condemnation in the judgment of the so-called “coup inquiry”, which begins on Tuesday (2/9) no. But there is a light on the ex-president’s horizon.
With the prospect of condemnation and prison in closed regime, Bolsonaro’s only chance avoiding long years behind bars will be politics. And probably only with a possible change of wind from 2026.
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Jair Bolsonaro will be tried by the STF for attempted military coup
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Former President Jair Bolsonaro in house arrest
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Jair Bolsonaro will be tried for attempted coup d’état
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The situation remembers in 2018. The petista was arrested when the political scenario indicated a right turn. In November 2019, with the political world willing to get rid of, it was released by decision of the STF.
Now the message to Bolsonaro is similar. At the moment, there is no way to escape the decision of the Supreme. But the conjuncture can change in 2026, especially if Lula is defeated in the presidential election.
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In this scenario, Centrão chiefs advise Bolsonaro to abandon the “delirium” of launching in the dispute and betting everything on the governor, considered the strongest name to defeat Lula.
Tarcisio himself has already stated, in several interviews, that, if elected President of the Republic in 2026, his first act would be to grant pardon to Bolsonaro and the other convicts in the coup inquiry.
This, however, is not the only alternative. With the winds blowing right, Bolsonaro could have a majority in the Senate – which would make room to press for impeachment of STF ministers.
There is also hope that the Supreme himself, having his political character increasingly enhanced in recent years, can understand, as it was with Lula, that the process against Bolsonaro had abuse. And nullify the convictions.
