The debate on the scope of the crimes and a possible divergence of Minister Luiz Fux should hear the beginning of the judgment of the central core of the case by alleged attempted coup in the Supreme Court (STF).
This Tuesday (2) and the Wednesday (3) will be dedicated to the presentation of the report of the case by Minister Alexandre de Moraes and the demonstrations of the PGR (Attorney General’s Office)-Prosecution-and the defendants’ defenses. The ministers of the First Class of the Supreme Court should utter the votes from this Tuesday (9). The sentences are scheduled for Friday, the 12th.
With the exception of the federal deputy and former director of Abin (Brazilian Intelligence Agency), Alexandre Ramagem, former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and the other defendants-all from the top of the past government-respond for five crimes. Sentences can reach 43 years in prison if convicted of the maximum penalties added.
The forecast is for debates if the attempted violent abolition of the Democratic Rule of Law and the attempted coup d’état overlap. That is, if they should be considered the same accusation. Defendants’ defenses must also explore the thesis of the absorption of crimes, to reduce the eventual penalty.
Bolsonaro allies heard by CNN expect Fux to open divergence from the majority of the first class, given the minister’s history of voting. They evaluate there is some possibility that resources take the case to the court plenary. This would reopen the judgment and postpone the effects of the eventual conviction, for example.
Most defendants intend to follow the sessions remotely. This Monday (1st), Jair Bolsonaro also received visits to house arrest, such as Senator Damares Alves (Republicans-DF) and former Mayor Arthur Lira (PP-AL). The senator said the former president is “serene”.
PGR claims to have gathered substantial evidence throughout the investigation. Among them, lives, messages, digital files, minutes and conversations. On the other hand, defendants’ lawyers claim that part of the complaint is sustained only in Mauro Cid’s denunciation.
The award-winning collaboration of Bolsonaro’s former right row has suffered a series of turbulence since signed in 2023, in exchange for freedom and relief in the penalty. The denunciation was in danger of being undone after the leak of audios in which Cid said he was pressured by the Federal Police. Omissions suspected also permeated the case.
Bolsonaro’s defense alleges coercion and excesses for Moraes, amid arrests and release of the whistleblower. Therefore, that the testimonies of ICD are not reliable.
Post-Condensation Scenario
Bolsonaro’s allies project a negative outcome for the former president and, with this, a post-condemnation scenario. The group bets on expanding sanctions by the United States against ministers who vote against the former president and in pressure for the advancement of the amnesty project in Congress.
On the other hand, part of the scholarships considers that more tariffs to Brazil can be shot by the electoral culastra next year. This is the first time a former President of the Republic can be arrested by coup. This is also the first time that military can be punished for planning an institutional rupture.
The Army prohibited any political manifestation in front of the barracks on judgment days. They are indicative of changes in the treatment given by Brazilian institutions and society. Not even the subsequent loss of patents of the defendants is discarded by the STM (Superior Military Court).
Safety around the Supreme Court is reinforced. The scheme includes greater effective agents, barriers, cameras, advanced x-ray equipment and even thermal technology drones.
